JAN's time, money lent on mortgages in ITALY, bore 6 per cent. t; on common fecurities in BITHYNIA, 12. And if intereft in SPAIN has not rifen to its old pitch; this can be. afcribed to nothing but the continuance of the same cause that funk it, viz. the large fortunes continually made in the INDIES, which come over to SPAIN from time to time, and fupply the demand of the borrowers. By this accidental and extraneous cause, more money is to be lent in SPAIN, that is, more money is collected into large fums, than would otherwife be found in a state, where there are fo little commerce and industry.

As to the reduction of intereft, which has followed in ENGLAND, FRANCE, and other kingdoms of EUROPE, that have no mines, it has been gradual; and has not proceeded from the increase of money, confidered merely in itself; but from the increafe of industry, which is the natural effect of the former increase, in that interval, before it raises the price of labour and provisions. For to return to the foregoing suppofition; if the industry of ENGLAND had rifen as much from other causes, (and that rife might easily have happened, though the flock of money had remained the fame) must not all the fame confèquences have followed, which we observe at prefent? The fame people would, in that cafe, be found in the kingdom, the fame commodities, the fame industry, manųfactures, and commerce; and confequently the fame merchants, with the fame ftocks, that is, with the fame command over labour and commodities, only reprefented by a

+ PLINII epift. lib. 7. ep. 18..

Jd. lib. 10. ep. 62.

fmaller

fmaller number of white or yellow pieces; which being a circumftance of no moment, would only affect the waggoner, porter, and trunk-maker. Luxury, therefore, manufactures, arts, industry, frugality, flourishing equally as at present, 'tis evident that interest must also have been as low; fince that is the necessary refult of all these circumftances; fo far as they determine the profits of commerce, and the proportion between the borrowers and lenders in any state.

Y y 2

1

ESSAY V.

OF THE BALANCE OF TRADE.

TIS

IS very ufual, in nations ignorant of the nature of commerce, to prohibit the exportation of commodities, and to preserve among themselves whatever they think valuable and ufeful. They confider not, that, in this prohibition, they act directly contrary to their intention; and that the more is exported of any commodity, the more will be raised at home, of which they themselves will always have the first offer.

"Tis well known to the learned, that the ancient laws of ATHENS rendered the exportation of figs criminal; that being fuppofed a fpecies of fruit fo excellent in ATTICA, that the ATHENIANS efteemed it too delicious for the palate of any foreigner. And in this ridiculous prohibition they were so much in earnest, that informers were thence called fycophants among them, from two GREEK words, which fignify figs and difcoverer*. There are proofs in many old acts of parliament of the fame ignorance in the nature of commerce, particularly in the reign of EDWARD III. And to this day, in FRANCE, the exportation of corn is almost always prohibited; in order, as they say, to prevent famines; though 'tis evident, that nothing contri8 PLUT. De Curiofitate.

butes

butes more to the frequent famines which so much distress that fertile country.

The fame jealous fear, with regard to money, has also prevailed among several nations; and it required both reafon and experience to convince any people, that thefe prohibitions ferve to no other purpofe than to raise the exchange against them, and produce a still greater exportation.

These errors, one may fay, are grofs and palpable; but there ftill prevails, even in nations well acquainted with commerce, a Arong jealousy with regard to the balance of trade, and a fear, that all their gold and filver may be leaving them. This feems to me, almoft in every cafe, a very groundless apprehension ; and I should as foon dread, that all our springs and rivers should be exhaufted, as that money fhould abandon a kingdom where there are people and industry. Let us carefully preserve these latter advantages; and we need never be apprehensive of lofing the former.

'Tis easy to obferve, that all calculations concerning the balance of trade are founded on very uncertain facts and suppo¬ fitions. The customhouse-books are allowed to be an insufficient ground of reasoning; nor is the rate of exchange much better; unless we confider it with all nations, and know alfo the proportion of the feveral fums remitted; which one may fafely pronounce impoffible. Every man who has ever reasoned on this subject, has always proved his theory, whatever it was, by facts and calculations, and by an enumeration of all the commodities fent to all foreign kingdoms,

The

The writings of Mr. GEE ftruck the nation with an universal panic, when they faw it plainly demonftrated, by a detail of particulars, that the balance was against them for fo confiderable a fum as must leave them without a fingle fhilling in five or fix years. But luckily, twenty years have fince elapfed, with an expensive foreign war; and yet it is commonly supposed, that money is still more plentiful among us than in any former period.

Nothing can be more entertaining on this head than Dr. SWIFT; an author fo quick in difcerning the mistakes and abfurdities of others. He fays, in his bort view of the state of IRELAND, that the whole cash of that kingdom amounted but to 500,000.; that out of this they remitted every year a neat million to ENGLAND, and had fcarce any other fource from which they could compenfate themselves, and little other foreign trade but the importation of FRENCH wines, for which they paid ready money. The confequence of this fituation, which must be owned to be disadvantageous, was, that in a course of three years, the current money of IRELAND, from 500,000l. was reduced to lefs than two. And at prefent, I fuppofe, in a courfe of 30 years, it is abfolutely nothing. Yet I know not how, that opinion of the advance of riches in IRELAND, which gave the Doctor so much indignation, seems still to continue, and gain ground with every body.

In short, this apprehenfion of the wrong balance of trade, appears of fuch a nature, that it discovers itself, wherever one is out of humour with the ministry, or is in low fpirits; and as it can never be refuted by a particular detail of all the exports, which counterbalance the imports, it may here be proper to

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