South German States would have to Austria-Hungary may be seen from the following table : Without including the smaller South German States and the territories which the kingdom of Saxony had to cede to Prussia in 1815, and which that country may fairly claim to have returned, the accession of the South German States mentioned and of Silesia would increase the German population of Austria-Hungary from 12,000,000 to 33,500,000. Austria-Hungary would once more become a pre-eminently German State. By far the greatest difficulty of the Dual Monarchy would be overcome. Relying on the large German element in the country the Hapsburgs might Germanise their vast and beautiful country without having to resort to force or to stoop to intrigue. The two most powerful bonds which unite the different nationalities within the Dual Monarchy are the Monarch and the Roman Catholic Church. South Germany and Silesia form, with the exception of Saxony, which is almost purely Protestant, a pre-eminently Catholic group. Hence their inclusion would not lead to violent religious differences in Austria-Hungary, especially as the South German Protestants are not zealots, but are easy-going people. In Silesia and the chief South German States the religions are distributed as follows: If we leave Saxony out of account, South Germany and Silesia contain together in round figures 10,000,000 Catholics and 6,500,000 Protestants. Saxony, although practically entirely Protestant, has special reason for desiring to be separated from Prussia and to be united with Austria, as will be shown later on. The weakness of the Dual Monarchy is due chiefly to two reasons: to the fact that the Government cannot rely on a national majority, that neither the Germans nor any other nationality are strong enough to support the Government against the others; and to the fact that the people are poor. AustriaHungary is a poor State, partly because lack of union among the nationalities impedes administrative reform and good government, partly because the country lacks certain natural resources, especially coal. By the accession of the South German States and of Silesia the Dual Monarchy would acquire an immense increase in wealth. The wealth of the South German States and of Silesia is evidenced by their rapid increase in population, which, since 1871, has grown as follows: The rapid increase in the population of the greater South German States and of Silesia shows that they are possessed of great wealth and of great resources. The Austrian manufacturing industries are comparatively little developed because the country lacks coal. In Southern Silesia, close to the Austrian frontier, lies the largest coalfield on the continent of Europe. How deficient Austria is in coal may be seen by the following figures : ... ... 160,747,000 tons. Germany's coal production in 1911 ... In 1911 Germany produced more than ten times as much coal as the Dual Monarchy. In that year Austria-Hungary imported from Germany 9,754,290 tons of coal and 797,976 tons of coke, the bulk of which came from the great Silesian coalfield of Germany. In 1911 Silesia alone produced 42,300,412 tons of coal, and Silesia's coal production is rapidly increasing. It rose to the figure mentioned from 12,656,700 tons in 1880. The manufacturing industries like to settle around the coalfields. It is not unnatural that Southern Silesia contains many of the most important German manufacturing industries, that the province employs machinery of more than 1,000,000 horse-power in industrial production. The acquisition of Silesia would make AustriaHungary independent of imported coal, and would supply the country with vast and powerful industries of every kind. At one stroke Austria-Hungary would be converted from a poor into a wealthy country. For political and economic reasons AustriaHungary would gain very greatly by the acquisition of Silesia and of South Germany. The people of Silesia and of South Germany have far more in common with the Austrians than with the Prussians. They are pre-eminently Roman Catholic, and they are far more easy-going than the Prussians. They would probably be far more happy if they were reunited to Austria. The future may see Germany divided into a Protestant and Roman Catholic half, and conceivably the Roman Catholic half, under Austria's guidance, might earlier or later incorporate the chiefly Roman Catholic Rhenish province with 7,000,000 inhabitants, of which 5,000,000 belong to the Roman faith. The Rhenish province is by far the wealthiest part of Germany. If Austria could succeed in acquiring it, her supremacy in Germany would become undisputed and indisputable. Germany has endeavoured to justify her war of aggression largely by her need of colonies, of oversea expansion. As a matter of fact, Austria-Hungary is far more in need of outlets for her surplus population than is Germany. That will be seen from the following table : During the last five years for which figures are available the emigration from Austria-Hungary was considerably more than nine times as large as that from Germany. Obviously, the Dual Monarchy has far more need of colonies than Germany, and conceivably the Allies might give to Austria-Hungary the outlets which she requires for her surplus population. For instance, she might be given some of the German colonies. Although Saxony is practically exclusively a Protestant country, she is likely to welcome the destruction of Prussia's hegemony in Germany and a reunion with Roman Catholic Austria, for Saxony has suffered terribly in the past through Prussia's covetousness, and from Prussian barbarity. Saxony has been the Belgium of the seventeenth and eighteenth centuries. Separating the Protestant North and the Roman Catholic South, Prussia and Austria, she suffered more during the Thirty Years' War than any other German State. When Frederick the Great, in 1740, entered upon his war with Austria, a war which, rightly considered, has been continued by his successors down to the present day, he found Austria inconveniently near to the Prussian territories and to his capital. As Saxony separated Austria from Prussia, he thought it most important that it should become part of Prussia. In the desire of acquiring Saxony he invaded that country in the second Silesian War and in the Seven Years' War, and he treated the unfortunate country with the same barbarity with which Germany is treating Belgium. According to reliable Prussian authorities, the small State of Saxony lost, in consequence of the Seven Years' War, 90,000 people and 100,000,000 thalers, without allowing in any way for the losses occasioned by the decline of trade and industry. How enormous a loss of 100,000,000 thalers was at the time may be seen from the fact that the national revenue of Prussia amounted only to 7,000,000 thalers a year at the time when Frederick the Great came to the throne. During the Seven Years' War, the King of Saxony, like the present King of Belgium, was driven out of his country. In his political testaments Frederick the Great urged upon his successors that they should humiliate Austria and acquire territories around Prussia, particularly Saxony. He wrote, for instance, in his testament of 1776 : "De nécessité il faut s'emparer de la Saxe. . . S'il s'agit des vues politiques d'acquisition qui conviennent à cette monarchie, les Etats de la Saxe sont sans contredit ceux qui lui conviendraient le mieux, en l'arrondissant et lui formant une barrière par les montagnes qui séparent la Saxe de la Bohême. . . . Cette acquisition est d'une nécessité indispensable pour donner à cet Etat la consistance dont il manque. Car, dès qu'on est en guerre, l'ennemi peut avancer de plain pied jusqu'à Berlin sans trouver la moindre opposition dans son chemin." Saxony lay not far from Berlin, and it separated Prussia from Austria, her intended prey. That was a crime that could not be forgiven. During the Napoleonic Wars Saxony, like Prussia, first endeavoured to remain neutral. When she found neutrality impossible she desired to join the winning side, remembering the terrible losses which the Seven Years' War had inflicted upon her. Thus she joined Napoleon partly through compulsion, partly from choice. After Napoleon's overthrow Prussia resolved to carry out the policy of Frederick the Great by demanding that Saxony should be punished for her faithlessness to the German cause, and that the country should be incorporated in Prussia in its entirety. The Prussian representatives advanced that demand at the Congress of Vienna. Prussia's attitude at the Congress was described by its Secretary, Frederick von Gentz, in a mémoire written on February 12th, 1815, as follows: "Prussia only brought to the Congress an immoderate desire for extending her possessions at the expense of all others and without regard to any principle of justice, or even decency. This passion for conquest had its origin neither in the character of the King nor of his Prime Minister, for the King, although below mediocrity in intellect and judgment, is at bottom a good man, and Chancellor Hardenberg is one of the best that ever existed. But the political system of the Prussian Court does not depend on the King or Prince Hardenberg. Prussia's policy, founded and pursued during the last century, has found fresh support in the enthusiasm of the nation and the energy of the Army, and in the irresistible power which certain distinguished military men exercise at present upon the Prussian Cabinet. Since the moment of Prussia's resurrection the principal object of the military party has been the total acquisition of Saxony. Being neither able nor willing to compete with Russia, they have concentrated all their ambitions upon Germany. The acquisition of Saxony, however enormous it was, would for them be but the beginning of a great series of political operations by which they hope sooner or later to unite with Prussia the largest part of the north of Germany, to efface the influence of Austria, and to put themselves at the head of the whole German confederation." The italics are not in the original. The Saxons were aware of Prussia's intentions. On September 19th, 1814, the King of Saxony wrote to Louis XVIII. of France protesting against Prussia's intention of despoiling him of his territories, and King Louis sent on October 13th instructions to Prince Talleyrand, the French representative at the Congress, to protect Saxony against Prussia's covetousness in the name of justice and of public morality. Prussia's outrageous demands revolted not only the King of France, but the German Sovereigns as well. In December, 1814, the Duke of Coburg drafted a protest to be signed by the smaller German Sovereigns, in which he stated: Si l'Allemagne est la clef de voûte de l'édifice politique de l'Europe, la Saxe est la pierre angulaire de la nouvelle fédération en cette partie. La lui enlever, serait ébranler le nouvel édifice dans ses fondements, et nous croyons exprimer le vœu unanime de toutes les parties intégrantes de la nation allemande, en disant hautement: Sans la Saxe libre et indépendante, point d'Allemagne fédérative solide." Talleyrand clearly recognised that the acquisition of Saxony would immensely strengthen Prussia's power, would enable her to strike at Austria, would make her supreme in Germany, would destroy the balance of power in Germany, and would therefore threaten the balance of power in Europe itself. With remarkable foresight he wrote to Prince Metternich on December 19th, 1814: "La disposition que l'on a prétendu faire du Royaume de Saxe, pernicieuse comme exemple, le serait encore par son influence, sur l'équilibre général de l'Europe, équilibre qui consiste dans un rapport entre les forces d'aggression et les forces de résistance réciproques des divers corps politiques; elle le blesserait de deux manières, l'une et l'autre très graves. "(1) En créant contre la Bohême une force d'aggression très grande et en menaçant ainsi la sûreté de l'Autriche entière. Car la force particulière de |