The Science of Conjecture: Evidence and Probability Before PascalJHU Press, 2001 - Всего страниц: 497 Before Pascal and Fermat's discovery of the mathematics of probability in 1654, how did we make reliable predictions? What methods in law, science, commerce, philosophy, and logic helped us to get at the truth in cases where certainty was not attainable? In this text, James Franklin examines how judges, witch inquisitors, and juries evaluated evidence; scientists weighed reasons for and against scientific theories; and merchants counted shipwrecks to determine insurance rates. Sometimes this type of reasoning avoided numbers entirely, as in the legal standard of proof beyond a reasonable doubt; at other times it involved rough numerical estimates, as in gambling odds or the level of risk in chance events. |
Содержание
1 The Ancient Law of Proof | 1 |
Suspicion Halfproof and Inquisition | 12 |
3 Renaissance Law | 40 |
4 The Doubting Conscience and Moral Certainty | 64 |
5 Rhetoric Logic Theory | 102 |
6 Hard Science | 131 |
7 Soft Science and History | 162 |
Action and Induction | 195 |
Insurance Annuities and Bets | 258 |
11 Dice | 289 |
12 Conclusion | 321 |
The Survival of Unquantified Probability | 362 |
Review of Work on Probability before 1660 | 373 |
Notes | 385 |
| 487 | |
Laws of God Laws of Nature | 228 |
Другие издания - Просмотреть все
The Science of Conjecture: Evidence and Probability Before Pascal James Franklin Ограниченный просмотр - 2015 |
The Science of Conjecture: Evidence and Probability Before Pascal James Franklin Ограниченный просмотр - 2002 |
The Science of Conjecture: Evidence and Probability before Pascal James Franklin Ограниченный просмотр - 2015 |
Часто встречающиеся слова и выражения
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