§ 1 All political practice concerns the future . 2 Comparison between the powers of prediction in the physical 16 Prediction in practical politics 349 17 Causes of the difficulty of prediction in practical physics and 18 Uncertainty of political predictions. 19 Uncertainty of predictions in other departments of practice On the Fallibility of Political Practice, and its Causes. CHAPTER XXVI. On the Securities against the Fallibility of Political Practice. 3 Chance is an element in the problem of practical politics 4 In practical politics, it rarely happens that the choice lies between an absolutely right and an absolutely wrong course 2 Mode of investigating the problem of progressive civilization. 410 3 How far the origins of civilization can be ascertained; conjec- 4 The elements of the progress of mankind may be distributed into four series-I. Politics; II. Religion and ethics ; III. Science and the useful arts; IV. the fine arts and ON THE METHODS OF OBSERVATION AND REASONING IN POLITICS. CHAPTER XIII. ON THE DETERMINATION OF THE HYPOTHETICAL EFFECTS OF A POLITICAL CAUSE. § 1 AFTER the examination in the preceding chapter, it remains for us to inquire into the method of determining the hypothetical effects of a given political cause, either generally, or in some supposed special case. The previous inquiry concerns effects as they have actually occurred; that on which we are about to enter concerns only supposed or calculated effects. The general case of this problem is similar to the corresponding case in the determination of causes from effects, already adverted to.(') It requires, for example, that an answer be given to such questions as the following: What effects does a monarchical, an aristocratic, or a democratic government produce? What are the consequences of capital punishment, of transportation, of imprisonment? What are the effects of direct, and what of indirect taxation? What are the effects of universal suffrage, of a censorship of the press, of liberty of the press, of a military conscription? If an answer can be given to each of these questions, it must be general in its terms-it must be devoid of any limitation as to time, but must apply equally to the past and the future. For the present, we must be contented VOL. II. (1) Above, ch. xi. b |