The Science of Conjecture: Evidence and Probability Before PascalTaylor & Francis, 23 авг. 2002 г. - Всего страниц: 497 How did we make reliable predictions before Pascal and Fermat's discovery of the mathematics of probability in 1654? What methods in law, science, commerce, philosophy, and logic helped us to get at the truth in cases where certainty was not attainable? In The Science of Conjecture, James Franklin examines how judges, witch inquisitors, and juries evaluated evidence; how scientists weighed reasons for and against scientific theories; and how merchants counted shipwrecks to determine insurance rates. The Science of Conjecture provides a history of rational methods of dealing with uncertainty and explores the coming to consciousness of the human understanding of risk. "A remarkable book. Mr. Franklin writes clearly and exhibits a wry wit. But he also ranges knowledgeably across many disciplines and over many centuries."—Wall Street Journal "The Science of Conjecture opens an old chest of human attempts to draw order from havoc and wipes clean the rust from some cast-off classical tools that can now be reused to help build a framework for the unpredictable future."—Science "Franklin's style is clear and fluent, with an occasional sly Gibbonian aside to make the reader chuckle."—New Criterion James Franklin is a professor in the School of Mathematics and Statistics at the University of New South Wales. |
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... Moral Certainty 64 Penance and Doubts 65 ; The Doctrine of Probabilism 69 ; Suarez : Negative and Positive Doubt 76 ; Grotius , Silhon , and the Morality of the State 79 ; Hobbes and the Risk of Attack 81 ; The Scandal of Lax- ism 83 ...
... Moral Certainty ? 217 ; The Jesuits and Hobbes on Induction 222 ; Pascal's Deductivist Philosophy of Science 224 9. Religion : Laws of God , Laws of Nature 228 The Argument from Design 228 ; The Church Fathers 230 ; Inductive Skepticism ...
... Moral 360 Epilogue : The Survival of Unquantified Probability 362 The Port - Royal Logic 362 ; Leibniz's Logic of Probability 363 ; To the Present 365 Appendix : Review of Work on Probability before 1660 373 Notes 385 Index 487 Preface ...
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The Science of Conjecture: Evidence and Probability Before Pascal James Franklin,Professor James Franklin Ограниченный просмотр - 2001 |
The Science of Conjecture: Evidence and Probability before Pascal James Franklin Ограниченный просмотр - 2015 |