Implications for training the labor force: By 1985 more than half the labor force will consist of people who are now in school or college and the proportion will grow rapidly as the years proceed. By 1985 we expect to live in a nation that will require highly trained and highly skilled people, most of whom will have obtained a large portion of their training in schools, colleges, and universities. The job for the nation's educational authorities is to establish a system of education from kindergarten through graduate and professional schools which will provide this training when it is needed, where it is needed, and in the various types that are needed, all at a reasonable cost. Having looked at the population and labor market possibilities in the generation ahead, my statistical associates turned to the third question: 3 WHAT IS THE OUTLOOK FOR ENROLLMENTS IN COLLEGES AND Increase: A conservative estimate is that the number of persons who are able to do post-high school work, and seeking to go to colleges and universities, full time or part time, can be expected to double between 1960 and 1970, triple by 1980, and continue upward thereafter for many years to come (see Chart 4). Private colleges and universities can be expected to expand from 1.5 million students in 1960 to 2.3 million students in 1970, an increase of 53 per cent in ten years, and then to grow rather EDUCATION LEGISLATION-1963 CHART 4 COLLEGE AND UNIVERSITY ENROLLMENTS PUBLIC AND PRIVATE INSTITUTIONS 1950-1985 NUMBER ENROLLED slowly in the years beyond. Public colleges and universities, including public junior colleges, will grow rapidly, however from just over 2 million students in 1960 to no fewer than 10 million by 1985. As a consequence, the percentage of college enrollments in private institutions can be expected to decline — from the 61 per cent noted at the beginning of the century (Chart 4) to 41 per cent in 1960, to not more than 20 per cent of the total a generation hence. Factors in the growth: Two main factors underlie the expected growth in the number of college and university students: • An increasing number of young people of college age (18-24 years of age) — from 16 million in 1950 and 1960 to 32 million in 1985, and • An increasing proportion of young people attending colleges and universities, both full-time and part-time (up from 15 per cent in 1950 to 40 per cent in 1985)- see Chart 5. My statistical associates believe that these are conservative estimates; that the "actuals" could well be higher. The emerging evidence is that "going to college" is rapidly becoming as important to many individuals, and to their parents, and as necessary to the welfare of the country, as going to high school became during the period between the two world wars. Moreover, going to college is economically possible now for a large proportion of our population. This comes as a result of the increased national income since World War II and its wide dispersion among the people. There has been a reduction in the need for parents to require children to support themselves or to augment the family income after they finish high school. Many parents now consider a college education for a child as a kind of "consumer good," the purchase of which can be an alternative to the purchase of a new car, a long vacation trip, a new home, etc. Against this background it is reasonable to conclude that if business continues at prosperous levels in the future and personal incomes remain high, a large proportion of parents can be expected to find ways to send their children to college despite the costs involved. On the other hand, if business is at relatively low levels there will be substantial unemployment among unskilled young people. Many could then be expected to enroll in colleges and universities, possibly with scholarship aid from government agencies. The fourth question studied by my statistical associates consisted of three parts: |