and the permanent triumph of anarchy in Italy, I accepted by some foreign powers, and rejected by would be alike impossible. We have no doubt none of its neighbors, became inevitable; and the that the language of Sir Stratford Canning has provincial towns, as well as the peasant cultivators, been that of a statesman manfully resolved to de- appear to have made up their minds to this new order of things, simply because it would be dangerfend the traditional policy of his country, to sup-ous to reopen the question in presence of a formiport the integrity and independence of the Ottoman dable multitude, bent upon indefinite abolition of the Empire, and to avert an aggression which must be existing institutions. But since a republic must be fatal to the general peace. But it is of extreme swallowed, it still was open to the French people to importance that not a word should have been said choose between a sound and an unsound form of at Pera with more energy than will be shown in one; in other words, between the Lamartine section and the Ledru-Rollin section. And had the Downing street, and if Russia construes the prep- former found himself in a condition to repudiate the aration of Turkey into a pretext of war, it must alliance with the latter at the period when the Asnot be forgotten what responsibility rests with sembly prepared to constitute the executive govpowers who have countenanced those preparations. ernment, early in May, 1848, I see no reason to For ourselves, we should deeply regret the occur- doubt that Lamartine would have continued to enjoy rence at this crisis in the affairs of Europe of an unbounded popularity, and would have been at this event calculated to disturb the harmony of our remoment president of the republic. Whether or not he acted wisely in avoiding the trial of strength between his party and that of the violent democratie clique, at that moment, is more than I dare pretend to decide. Many influential persons besought him to make it; alleging that the battle must be fought sooner or later, and that he would never be better armed than then. He thought his resources inadequate to the struggle; and though, in subsequent conflicts, large bodies of armed men from the country flocked up to Paris to aid the cause of order and authority, it is far from certain that Lamartine ought to have reckoned upon provincial assistance, at that time. Be this as it may, the effect of his continuing to work on with the violent section of his colleagues was, to change the confidence of the nation into distrust. Lamartine fell at once from his lofty eminence to a state of comparative neglect and contempt. And here it must be said in passing, that this change, so far from reflecting discredit on the French people, in reality, attested their discernment and their fixed preference for "la République honnête" over "la République sociale." It was no idle caprice, it was a dread of the reckless character of the " Montagne," which alienated their confidence from Lamartine. lations with the head of the Russian Empire, and to add so large an element of discord to the chances of war. Such an event would be disgraceful, and in the end calamitous, to Russia herself; but it would be still more fatal to the restoration of order on the continent of Europe, and possibly to peace throughout the world. ON FRANCE. [The subjoined communication discloses no new facts; but it derives weight from the excellent information and cool judgment of the writer, who moves in a circle of political society that commands the best view of France and her affairs; and it is useful as confirming conclusions which we had already formed.]—Spectator. Paris, 18th March, 1849. SIR-As I have lately acquired considerable insight into the political feeling which has pervaded the French people during the last twelvemonth, I think it may be a welcome addition to your stock of information if I communicate the impressions I have received. You may rely upon it that the sources whence I derive them are undoubtedly genuine; and that my belief in their accuracy is sustained by a sedate comparison of various statements, coinciding in their main facts as well as in their leading conclusions. Next came the canvass for the presidency; and the "épicier" naturally looked for some other man in antithesis with Ledru-Rollin. The man presented himself in the person of Louis Napoleon. In the absence of more commanding claims to popular favor, his name, and connection with one whose memory still remained associated with national glory, operated powerfully in the provinces. General Cavaignac, deservedly esteemed though he was for his personal qualities, had the double misfortune to be considered too closely allied with the extreme republicans, and to have been compelled to impose a small additional tax. The vehement support he received from some newspapers of that color, and, possibly, even the favorable wishes expressed by the English, tended to confirm the prejudice industriously propagated by his adversaries, which no efforts of his partizans could dissipate. The choice of Louis Napoleon, then, may be said to have indicated before all things a disposition to repudiate extreme democracy, by naming somebody who should curb and disparage the violent demagogues of the provisional government. The most distinct of these is, that the republic, as such, was desired by no class of Frenchmen. Nothing is more worthy of observation than this fact. Nobody wanted a republic; yet here it is, fairly on its legs, and even promising to walk tolerably straight on them. Who then forced a republic upon this great nation? I will tell you. A handful of resolute individuals, deeply penetrated with the conviction that all kings are perfidious and mischievous, and prompted by a sincere desire to frame a government upon thoroughly democratic principles; seconded by the all-powerful will of an excited populace. The monarchy was annulled and the republic was decreed; and once decreed, it became unsafe to unsettle a framework which held out a hope of getting back to a state of subordination to authority. Moreover, the probable rivalry between Once installed, the country has, in the main, three families for the supreme headship, in the event taken a steady course. The citizens have cheerof a new dynasty being founded, (I mean the Bour-fully "turned out" in all cases where the represbon, Orleans, and Bonaparte candidates,) offered sion of vicious demonstrations was needed; and, as serious objections to a resumption of monarchical far as a stranger' can discern, there seems to be a government. Hence, the republic, once proclaimed, reasonable prospect of France recovering gradually from her state of disorder, under the present gov-scure originals of history addresses the assembled ernment. It has rarely happened that a cabinet representatives of many classes, many races, many has possessed such claims to respect and confidence, interests, and many traditions. He can seldom on the score of personal character, as the one now 66 in office; into which, indeed, the element of the escape an explicit reference to the greatest calamrespectable" enters largely and an unusual har-ities and difficulties that a nation can suffer in mony subsists among them, forming a lively contrast itself or by its international relations. Perhaps with the acrimonious disputes of their precursors. we are menaced by the ambition of a neighbor, or As to talent, the leading member is unquestionably entangled in the quarrels of allies; perhaps the M. Léon Faucher, Minister of the Interior, whose soil of these isles or a branch of employment is indefatigable energy, severe discipline in his de- too crowded; perhaps effete institutions are to be partment, and ability in the tribune, render him the renovated in the face of inveterate prejudice; pervery keystone of the arch. Poor Odillon Barrot brings little to the common stock except his private haps the knotted web of medieval law is to be unvirtues, which lend a certain weight to what he ravelled; at one time pauperism cankers the soul says; but he has a limited range of knowledge, and of self-enslaved myriads, at another time famine is only set going on rare occasions, where his pecu- decimates a neglected and helpless race; factions liar style of oratory is found useful. lacerate and debt burdens the land. In the midst The president is said to behave with discretion in of festering sores ever ready to open, and surthe council, and to conceive with tolerable fidelity the true sphere of his functions. I do not believe rounding by conflicting cries, the sovereign twice a that he cherishes the idea of becoming emperor. year utters a few sentences, the chief merit of He knows that there would be "three Richards in which is that they put a fair face on the sufferings the field," if the question arose who should be em- of the nation and the short comings of the legislaperor; whilst as president he may fairly count upon ture. Across the Atlantic we see everything a long spell of power. I went to his grand ball on changed. There a youthful empire, with a rapidWednesday last, at the Elysée Bourbon. It was ly increasing population and a whole world before an interesting spectacle. The salons were inconveniently crowded and hot, but the scene it, is bounding on to new regions and new shores. brilliant, and highly suggestive. Louis Napoleon Political ambition, mercantile rivalry, the jealousy moved about the rooms, speaking to his guests oc- of classes and of creeds, are subdued before the casionally, and a circle was opened for him wherever ardor of a race of which wealth in every form is he approached; but the ladies did not rise from the prize. The chosen leader of the people adtheir seats, (as they ought to have done,) unless dresses a great company of adventurers, started when addressed by the president. He has a certain afresh on such an enterprise as the world never quiet, sedate bearing, which produces the effect of dignity; and I am told he is by no means wanting yet saw. in that appreciation of "le convenable" which is so desirable to a man in his position. was The present assembly is striving to prolong its existence by debating futile propositions, and by every small device within its power. The electoral law, however, is at length completed, and their days, accordingly, are numbered. People say that the next assembly (which will consist of much fewer members) will be far less democratic than the actual one. A conservative tendency, in fact, appears to have gained ground; resulting in great measure from the sense of insecurity consequent on the recent disorders. Still, the fact that only one egislative chamber is to exist, that the suffrage is to be universal, and that every elector is eligible to sit in the assembly, renders the basis of the constitution so palpably democratic that little fear need arise of France becoming anything else than democratic in the general complexion of her government. His topics are duty and hope. His tone, and the very rhythm of his sentences, remind us of the deliverer leading his armies into a longpromised land.-Times. The address GENERAL TAYLOR has begun his presidency of the United States, with an inaugural address which is received as marking a hopeful change in the character of the administration. is briefer than the pedantic essays of his immediate predecessors, and more general in its terms. But if a responsible ruler is bound to particularize, the excess to which late presidents have gone in elaborate minuteness, coupled with the nature of their administration, has shown that a subservient first magistrate is not always a good or creditable ruler even for a republic. General Taylor writes with the simplicity and heartiness of a man who trusts to his good fame, to his own honest purpose, and the candid interpretation of his hearers; his manTHE inaugural message of President Taylor ner indicates at once independence and considerwill not fail to excite a certain sort of admiration. ateness, discretion and a generous warmth. You If it does not appeal to the warmest sympathies of feel that you are reading the words of one who is an Englishman, if it does not possess that semi-more of a man than the self-seeking popularity tragic interest with which regal Europe listens to mongers who have occupied his post. But statesthe few and solemn declarations of her princes, it manship cannot get rid of a personal character; is for reasons some of which are immensely in fa- and, after all, largeness of head and heart are vor of the American republic. In these elder better gages of good conduct in public men than countries the heir of a throne founded in the ob-specific pledges.-Spectator. POETRY.-Where shall I follow Thee, 196.- To the Author of Mary Barton, 205. SHORT ARTICLES.-Promotion; Seniority and Capacity, 194.-Panorama of Switzerland, 205. of the condition and changes of foreign countries. And this not only because of their nearer connection with our- selves, but because the nations seem to be hastening, through a rapid process of change, to some new state of Littell's Museum of Foreign Literature, (which was favor- ably received by the public for twenty years,) but as it is twice as large, and appears so often, we not only give spirit and freshness to it by many things which were excluded by a month's delay, but while thus extending our scope and gathering a greater and more attractive variety, are able so to increase the solid and substantial part of our literary, historical, and political harvest, as fully to The elaborate and stately Essays of the Edinburgh, Quarterly, and other Reviews; and Blackwood's noble criticisms on Poetry, his keen political Commentaries, highly wrought Tales, and vivid descriptions of rural and mountain Scenery; and the contributions to Literature, History, and Common Life, by the sagacious Spectator, the sparkling Examiner, the judicious Athenæum, the busy and industrious Literary Gazette, the sensible and comprehensive Britannia, the sober and respectable Chris- tian Observer; these are intermixed with the Military and Naval reminiscences of the United Service, and with the best articles of the Dublin University, New Monthly, Fraser's, Tait's, Ainsworth's, Hood's, and Sporting Mag- azines, and of Chambers' admirable Journal. We do not consider it beneath our dignity to borrow wit and wisdom from Punch; and, when we think it good enough, make ase of the thunder of The Times. We shall increase our variety by importations from the continent of Europe, and from the new growth of the British colonies. The steamship has brought Europe, Asia and Africa, into our neighborhood; and will greatly multiply our con- Geographical Discoveries, the progress of Colonization, (which is extending over the whole world,) and Voyages and Travels, will be favorite matter for our selections; and, in general, we shall systematically and very fully acquaint our readers with the great department of Foreign affairs, without entirely neglecting our own. While we aspire to make the Living Age desirable to all who wish to keep themselves informed of the rapid progress of the movement-to Statesmen, Divines, Law- yers, and Physicians-to men of business and men of leisure-it is still a stronger object to make it attractive and useful to their Wives and Children. We believe that we can thus do some good in our day and generation; and hope to make the work indispensable in every well-in- formed family. We say indispensable, because in this day of cheap literature it is not possible to guard against the influx of what is bad in taste and vicious in morals, in any other way than by furnishing a sufficient supply of a healthy character. The mental and moral appetite We hope that, by "winnowing the wheat from the chaff," by providing abundantly for the imagination, and by a large collection of Biography, Voyages and Travels, History, and more solid matter, we may produce a work TERMS.-The LIVING AGE is published every Satur- Agencies. 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We add the definition alluded to: A newspaper is "any printed publication, issued in numbers, consisting of not more than two sheets, and published at short, stated intervals of not more than one month, conveying intelligence of passing events." Monthly parts.-For such as prefer it in that form, the Living Age is put up in monthly parts, containing four or five weekly numbers. In this shape it shows to great advantage in comparison with other works, containing in each part double the matter of any of the quarterlies. But we recommend the weekly numbers, as fresher and fuller of life. Postage on the monthly parts is about 14 cents. The volumes are published quarterly, each volume LITTELL'S LIVING AGE.-No. 260.—MAY 12, 1849. From Chambers' Journal. for instance, the height of the human frame. By QUETELET ON THE LAWS OF THE SOCIAL SYS-aggregating the heights of the population of a TEM. GREATER attention has, perhaps, been paid to social questions during the present year than at any recent period. Civil perturbations naturally produce, with other effects, a disposition to devise rules for their governance, or remedies against their recurrence. There will, of course, be great differ ences in the character of the remedial measures proposed; still it is always best to look boldly at the evils with which humanity is afflicted, and in this regard honest endeavors to systematize social aberrations, to explain their laws, may find accep tance. Among the writers who have occupied themselves with this subject, M. Quetelet of Brussels is already favorably known to many readers by his treatise on Man," " and the development of his faculties, published about twelve years since. This was followed, in 1846, by "Letters on the Theory of Probabilities applied to Moral and Political Science;" and now, as the complement of these, we have the work whose title is given in the note below. In the "Letters," &c., was originated the law of accidental causes, and this law is shown to be reducible to calculation in common with physical or mechanical laws. Many effects which appear to be accidental, cease to be so when the observations are extended over a large number of facts; and, as the author remarks, "the liberty of choice, (free will,) whose results are so capricious when individuals only are observed, leaves no sensible traces of its action when applied to multitudes." Hence the important law is deduced, "that social facts, influenced by liberty of choice, proceed with even more regularity than facts submitted simply to the action of physical causes." Although the tracing out involves certain difficulties, yet analogies are to be found between moral and mechanical laws; and on these various considerations it is urged that "henceforth moral statistics ought to take its place among the sciences of observation." It will thus be seen that the aim of the work before us is something beyond mere political economy; it is to develop the laws of equilibrium and movement, and especially the preservative principles existing between different parts of the social system. Man is brought before us in his individual character; in his relations to the nation to which he belongs; and last, the ties which, uniting nations, constitute humanity. The law of accidental causes is not one of mere hypothesis, it may be proved by physical facts; * Du Système Social, et des Lois qui le Régissent. Par A. Quetelet. Paris: Guillaumin et Co. 1848. CCLX. 66 country, a mean is obtained which gives the standard, and the departures or variations from this mean range symmetrically above and below it; as if," observes M. Quetelet," nature had a type proper to a country, and to the circumstances in which it is placed. Deviations from this type would be the product of causes purely accidental, which act either plus or minus with the same intensity.” The groups on either side of the average are the more numerous the more they approach to or resemble the mean; and the more widely they deviate, so do they terminate in rarities, as giants and dwarfs. Every portion of the scale, however, has its value; there exists between them a mysterious tie, which so operates that each individual may be considered as the necessary part of a whole, which escapes us physically only to be seized by the eye of science." The same law applies also to the growth of the body, which would be more regular were nature less interfered with; there is, besides, a standard weight, and a relation between a man's height and the rate of his pulse; taking the mean for males at seventy, 66 care we have a datum on which to base other calculations. The author regrets that we have no ful continuous observations on workmen whose labor presents a certain periodicity in the exercise of the limbs; on blacksmiths, for example, sawyers, shoemakers, tailors; they might lead to interesting results." With regard to growth, he continues, "at the instant of man's entrance into life, his height is fixed by nature; the variations remarked are purely accidental; and when grouped by order of altitudes, they equally obey a law. Such is the harmony with which all has been combined, that the anomalies even exist only in appearance, and they march with the same regularity as the laws whose movement they disguise." The mean height in Belgium for the male is 1.684 metres, and for the female, 1.579 metres. M. Quetelet suggests, as a means of obtaining valuable and interesting data on many moral and physical questions, that a record should be kept in every family of all the events or circumstances that brought pleasure or grief to the household, that opened a new line of thought, started a new subject of inquiry, as well as periodical entries of the growth in height, weight, &c., of each member of the family. And he gives us an intimation that this course is pursued by Prince Albert, to whom his book is dedicated. With regard to the progressive development of the human being from birth to maturity, the author hopes at some future day to publish his researches, which will doubt 66 The less be valuable in an artistic point of view. even in the unscaled, undirected, and illegibly-adComplex and difficult as the subject may appear, dressed letters deposited yearly in the post-office. it is much simplified by the chief result: "Man's" With such an assemblage of facts before us," proportions are so fixed, at whatever age we con- asks the author, "must man's free choice be desider him, that the having observed a small num-nied? Truly I think not. I conceive only that ber of individuals, is sufficient to give the type in the effect of this free choice is restrained within the mean." There is, besides, really less differ- very narrow limits, and plays among social pheence of development than would at first be sup-nomena the part of an accidental cause. It thereposed; uniformity is more prevalent than our fore ensues, that making abstraction of individuals, appreciation of objects would lead us to conclude. and considering circumstances only in a general "In my early investigations," pursues M. Quete- manner, the effects of all accidental causes ought let, on the proportions of the human body, I to neutralize and destroy themselves mutually, so measured thirty men of the age of twenty; I dis- as to leave predominant only the true causes in tributed them afterwards into three groups of ten virtue of which society exists and maintains itself. men each. In this separation I regarded one con- The Supreme Being has wisely imposed limits to dition only-that of having the same mean height our moral faculties as to our physical faculties; for each group, so as to render the other results man has no power over the eternal laws. more easily comparable, without the trouble of possibility of establishing moral statistics, and dereducing by calculation. Thus the mean height ducing useful consequences therefrom, depends enwas the same for the first, second, and third tirely on this fundamental fact, that man's free group; but what was my astonishment to find choice disappears, and remains without sensible that the man selected as the mean, representing effect, when the observations extend over a great each one of my three groups, was not only the number of individuals." In predicating, however, same in height, but also for each part of the on the number of marriages to take place in any body! The likeness was such, that a single per- given year, it is important to distinguish between son, measured three times in succession, would the apparent and real tendency to the conjugal have presented more sensible differences in the state. These may exhibit great differences. measures than those which I found between my “Thus one man may have all his life a real tenthree means." dency for marriage, without ever marrying; while The conclusions to be drawn from these physical another, from fortuitous circumstances, may marry phenomena are all intended to bear on the great without experiencing any inclination for wedded moral view of the subject. M. Quetelet shows life." It is possible to represent these tendencies that many of the erroneous opinions to which by curved lines, which, for males, commencing at writers on social questions have come, have origi- the age of 20, and ending at 80, shows the maxnated in their regarding man in the individual imum to be between 35 and 40. For females, the rather than in the mass; that which defies calcu- curve terminates ten years earlier, and reaches its lation in the one case is easily established in the highest point in the years from 25 to 30. The other. Moral are distinguished from physical distinction between the apparent and real is essenphenomena by the intervention of man's free tial; for although we are able to establish a law choice, and the exercise of this prerogative is for the mass, we can prove nothing beforehand of found rather to restrict than to disturb the limits the individual. of deviation. Marriage is adduced as affording The same real and apparent tendency or inclithe best example of the direct interference of free nation exists also with regard to crime, and nearly choice; generally speaking, it is entered on with all other moral actions; for it is clear that a pergreat circumspection. Yet, during the past twen- son may have a great inclination for crime without ty years, the number of marriages in Belgium, re- once committing it; another may abhor crime, and gard being had to the increase of population, has yet become culpable. "It is thus possible," says remained annually the same. Not only has the M. Quetelet, "to state, from continued observanumber proved constant in the towns and the coun- tions, the relative degrees of energy which lead try, but also as respects marriages between young men to execute certain facts. Thus, if I see a men and young women, young men and widows, million men of 25 or 30 years produce twice as widowers and young women, and widowers and many murders as a million of 40 to 45 years of widows. The same fact holds, too, with regard age, I should be disposed to believe that the inclito the ages at which marriage is contracted; and nation to murder among the former has twice the the great discrepancies sometimes observed in ill-energy of what prevails among the latter. assorted unions, are neither to be considered as It is important, therefore, to have a number of obfatalities nor mere effects of blind passion; like servations sufficient to eliminate the effects of all giants and dwarfs in respect of growth, they con- the fortuitous causes from which differences may stitute the remotest deviations in the law of acci- be established between the real and apparent indental causes. The same result also obtains in clination to be determined. * So long as other human actions as well as that of marriage; the march of justice and that of repression remain there is a certain regularity in crime, in suicides, the same, which can scarcely be possible, except in mutilations to avoid military service, in the sum in one and the same country, constant relations annually staked on the gaming-tables of Paris, and are established between these three facts:-1st, |