There was at all events something here for pauperism to feed upon, and it is well known that want is never far distant from wealth. It cannot be considered a large demand upon the riches of this county, equalling 10 per cent. of the aggregate wealth of the remaining fifty-one counties of England and Wales, that it should have been called upon in 1861 to pay for the relief of the poor the sum of 429,617., about 8 per cent. of the total amount paid in respect of this charge, while in numbers the pauperism of Lancashire was equal to 7 per cent. of that of England and Wales. The position of Lancashire in 1861, relatively to pauperism, was therefore extremely favourable. As compared with England and Wales, she had 12 per cent. of the population, and 10 per cent. of the collective. wealth; but the number of her paupers was only 7 per cent., and her expenditure for their relief was 8 per cent. of the amount paid by England and Wales.

We have now glanced at the physical features and the social and commercial condition of the cotton districts at the commencement of the Famine. We are somewhat acquainted with the state of the cotton trade at that period, and have examined at length the legal and charitable machinery which then existed for the relief of distress. The resources of Lancashire, the ways and means of her teeming population, have been to some degree exposed; and now we must proceed to veil this prosperous picture, and draw across the scene those clouds which have for a time obscured the brilliant commercial triumphs of the cotton trade.

CHAPTER III.

OCTOBER-DECEMBER 1861.

In the month of October 1861, the price of cotton advanced at a rate such as had never been previously known in the annals of the trade. Time had been when a rise of a farthing per pound gave cause for more talk, and—unless the causes were self-evident-for more astonishment throughout the manufacturing districts, than would have been occasioned by a continental revolution. But now, the cotton trade was beginning to realize something of the magnitude and probable duration of the struggle which had sealed up the ports of the Southern States of America. The defeat of the Federals at Bull Run, in August, and the hostile proclamation issued by Mr. Lincoln in September, interdicting all intercourse with Secessia, had tended to produce this conviction. Had it not been for this war manufacturers would have been much in the same position, and very many of their mills must have been closed. It cannot be said that the industry of Lancashire was as yet affected to any considerable extent by the stoppage of supplies from America, because the previous over-production had been so great, that a continuance of it would have been found to involve a very large depreciation in the value of manufactures. During the past two years, the excess of production over consumption amounted to at least 300,000,000 lb. weight of manufactured goods; which, in the raw material, would be equal to 842,000 bales of 400 lb. each. With this surplus stock in the hands of the trade, it cannot be a matter of surprise that manufacturers should have become anxious to work their mills' short time.' Had it not been for this war, the propable consequence of such a policy would have been a fall in the price of the raw material to sixpence per pound. But the Cotton Famine, though not immediately

at hand, could be seen looming dark and dreary in a not very distant future. Speculators began to operate upon the Liverpool market, and in this one month of October the price of Middling Orleans rose twopence per pound. One shilling per pound was now given freely for this cotton, which could be grown with profit at threepence halfpenny. And the hitherto neglected Surat, ill-treated both in the land of its growth and in the place of its consumption— the pariah of the cotton trade-the bête noire of the factories, actually rose in the four weeks of this month from sevenpence farthing to tenpence per pound.

The immediate result of the American war was, at this time, to relieve the English cotton trade, including the dealers in the raw material and the producers and dealers in manufactures, from a serious and impending difficulty. They had in hand a stock of goods sufficient for the consumption of two-thirds of a year, therefore a rise in the price of the raw material and the partial closing of their establishments, with a curtailment of their working expenses, was obviously to their advantage. But to make their success complete, this rise in the price of cotton was upon the largest stock ever collected in the country at this season. To the cotton trade there came in these days an unlooked for accession of wealth, such as even it had never known before. In place of the hard times which had been anticipated, and perhaps deserved, there came a shower of riches. There were, of course, arid spots

whereon this auriferous deposit did not fall. It is not impossible that here and there a large manufacturer could show his losses even at this period; but if so, these were due to his own want of judgment or of capital. At this time there were two classes of men, one on either side of the Atlantic, who were becoming enormously enriched, the one directly and the other indirectly, by the American war. In the New World it was the contractor class, which was rolling in wealth gathered from the tremendous endeavours of the United States Government; in the Old, it was the cotton trade. Towards the close of this year, the excess of production was estimated at 300,000,000 lb., and the stock of raw material in the kingdom had reached the unprecedented amount of 279,207,000 lb. There is good authority for believing that these stocks were consumed at

the rate of two-thirds in 1862, and one-third in 1863. But at what prices? The manufacturer, conscious of overproduction in 1859-60-61, had reason to suppose that he would have to submit to a reduction in prices. How must these sad prognostications have been turned to rejoicing throughout the cotton trade, as the price of mule yarn rose from 18. 1d. in October 1861, to 1s. 11d. in October 1862, and subsequently to 28. 9d. in the same month of 1863. A similar rate of advance was seen in the value of cotton cloth. Its pric Its price rose from 11s. in 1861, to 20s. in 1862, and to 22s. in 1863. If it be conceded that these 300,000,000 lb. of goods were manufactured at the prices of October 1861, it is quite fair to assume that they were sold at those of the same date in 1862 and 1863. Upon this calculation, there would be a profit upon their sale amounting to 8,333,333. in each year, the increase of value in the latter year being exactly cent. per cent. Then, as to the stock of raw cotton at the close of 1861, amounting to 279,207,000 lb., a very large quantity of this had been imported before the month of June, when Middling Orleans was quoted at 8d. per lb. ; but it may be assumed that it was all paid for at the rates of October 1861, that is, at the rate of 11d. per lb. The price of raw cotton rose in October 1862, to 2s. 3d., and in the same month of 1863 to 2s. 5d. per lb. Assuming that this surplus of the raw material went off at the same rate as that of manufactured goods-and the stocks of cotton at the close of 1862 and 1863 would seem to warrant this assumption—there would have been at the above prices a gross profit upon the whole surplus amounting to 19,059,9851.

Taking this view of the sale of the surplus stocks of raw cotton and manufactured goods in the hands of the cotton trade, at the close of 1861, there was a gross profit upon the former amounting to 19,059,9851., and upon the latter of 16,666,666., making together the magnificent total of 35,726,651.! There might be added some more millions for the difference between the price paid to the grower, and by the consumer of the imports since 1861. But here is enough and more than sufficient to repay at least a considerable portion of the loss of wages and profits during the two years of famine. Where this profit rests, cannot

precisely be known; in what proportion it has been divided between those who are really exporters, those who are professed speculators, and those who are manufacturers, cannot be told. Spinners have oftentimes been speculators, and speculators have been frequent exporters. All that can be said is that such an amount of profit has palpably accrued to the cotton trade during the past two years. Thirty-six millions of money! Even supposing that all the production of the past two years has been carried on without profit-which it would hardly be less than ridiculous to suppose-there is, at least, something here to have consoled the trade for the diminished production which has been the cause of this accidental prosperity.

But October 1861 brought very different prospects to the needy manufacturers, to the small shopkeepers, and to the operatives generally. Short time means short wages and much compulsory idleness, less food and less pleasuring to the operative. It means to the manufacturer without capital, a serious reduction of income, with no corresponding abatement in his expenditure on account of the fabric and machinery of his mill. It means very short profits, long credit, and perhaps many bad debts to the little, working-class shopkeeper.

At this time, comparatively few mills had stopped altogether, but soon many would do so, and the prospects of labour in the manufacturing districts were never more gloomy. It was known that the distress which was now felt was the consequence of a glut rather than a famine. The impending cotton dearth had, no doubt, its influence; but there was as yet no scarcity of cotton in Lancashire. The results of the short time' of 1861 are written in the savings-banks returns for that year, where it is seen that the amount withdrawn in England alone, exceeds that paid in by 834,792l., showing a larger surplus of abstraction than any since the year 1848 of revolutionary memory.

In the latter months of this year, though the Cotton Famine was not evident in the warehouses of Manchester and Liverpool, it began to show signs of its approach in the streets and roads of the manufacturing towns. Groups of idlers, no longer listeners for the factory-bell, were to be seen at every street-corner. In busy times, the opera