Изображения страниц

training of the student. We cannot afford to reproduce Frankenstein's creation in South Africa. And in the present stage of their development the teaching of ethics cannot be divorced from religion, nor a moral character produced without reference to an Unseen Being. Not that the questionable dogmas of the Churches should be perpetuated, but that the native student should learn the secret of all moral victory from the example and sympathy of men with high spiritual ideals.

Yet another principle that should guide in the framing of a native college course is that, while the education provided should aim at the widening of the student's mental horizon and the deepening of his intellectual capacity, it should after a certain point lead in the direction of specialised training. Whatever "Arts" course is framed should be followed by courses with distinctly professional and utilitarian aims. We want to produce a class of men who can turn their education to practical use in the work of uplifting their own people. There are at present openings for such, whether trained as better class teachers, or as agriculturists, or in the direction of sanitary reform. Indeed it is questionable if, at least for some time to come, a degree should be conferred upon any native student who has not successfully completed some such professional course.

Such, briefly stated, are the aims of the present movement towards an extension in native higher education in the form of the establishment of an inter-State Native College. The College is certain to come. It rests with those who guide the educational thought of this country, so to shape its policy, that its highest potentialities may be realised.

By J. M. P. MUIRHEAD, F.S.A.A., F.C.I.S., F.S.S., &c.

For many years a body of men have come together in Great Britain annually to discuss the Advancement of Science, and now in South Africa this particular Association has been formed for the same purpose as the parent one in England, and I sincerely trust that it has a long life in front of it, and that it will be productive of considerable benefit not only to its own members but to the whole of this vast Sub-Continent.

Of all the branches of science which are likely to be discussed at the meetings of this Association, Statistics is probably the one which will arouse the least interest, and yet it is in many ways the most important.

I think it will be generally admitted that the most important discoveries in science have been the reward of careful measurement, and unwearied labour in sifting numerical results. Indeed, I might go so far as to say that Statistics form the foundation on which many other scientists work, and without which they would fail to be eminently successful. As Major Craigie, in his Presidential Address to this Section of the British Association, held at Bradford in 1900, stated: We are the hewers of wood and the drawers of water for the economic controversialist of the day "; and Lord Kelvin says that "Measurement and comparison are the essential conditions of any form of significant discovery in the domain of science," and the statesmen who sway the destinies of the country, and are guided by certain accepted theories which have been arrived at by the study of certain facts in life by the Statistician, must recognise that it is essential that the information on which they found their policy be absolutely accurate, and the figures supplied reliable. And, therefore, the Statistician becomes an important element in the Government of a country, and it is of vital import that he approach his work not only in a scientific spirit, but in one recognising the importance of what he is doing, and fully grasping the necessity for the most absolute accuracy in all his work.

It is hardly necessary to irritate you at this stage with an academic enquiry into the origin of the term "Statistics," and whether it is the duty of Statisticians simply to collect and present facts and figures and hand them over to other scientists to deal with, or whether the Statistician is allowed to go further and frame deductions on the figures he has compiled. Major Craigie, in referring to the previous view in his Presidential Address to the Royal Statistical Society in 1902, stated "he had the authority of the late Dr. Engel for declining this strict definition of our science, as he had himself discovered in the writings of different authors over 180 different definitions."

There are so many interesting and valuable Statistical questions that might with advantage be placed before this Section that I have found some difficulty in deciding which to take, but there is no question whatever that the study of the numerous interesting details

concerning population has always been regarded as the most useful, the most valuable, and the most prominent field of Statistical enquiry, and therefore, as a humble student of that great and important science, it seems to me wiser, and with all modesty, to collect a few general figures, and also a few figures of local signification on this subject, which I may, for the first time I appear before you, deal with as likely to be not only of general interest, but possibly of permanent value.

I will therefore refer briefly to some features dealing with European population, and then deal with some purely affecting the Cape Colony. I may overstep the bounds of the legitimate Statistician by pointing a moral to adorn my tale, but I hope that may be forgiven, though the main object of my paper is more to present the figures, leaving others to point the morals; in fact, to be the hewer of wood and the drawer of water for those whose own scientific enquiries so fully occupy them that the Statistical foundation must necessarily be provided.

In referring to Statistics of European population, I may point out that the subject is so large that the figures of each country would require a separate paper, which would be full of interest, and therefore, with the exception of brief reference to some population questions of the British Isles, I can only simply point out the alteration in the importance of countries, caused by the increase of population during the last hundred years or so.

When we look back one hundred years to 1806, how important France loomed in the politics and history of the world, and countries like Italy, Spain, Holland, Sweden, Denmark, had also to be seriously considered as European Powers. To-day, however, we look at the population of the principal countries in Europe, and we must also take into consideration that great Western Power which has practically sprung up during the last century, viz., the United States, and we find that, in the first place, the population of Great Britain has increased during the period mentioned from 16 millions to 40; the population of Germany from 20 millions to 55; of Russia from 40 millions to 135; and of the United States from 5 millions to nearly 80. On the other hand, France has only increased from 25 millions to less than 40; the population of Spain is to-day under 20 millions; the population of Italy about 33 millions; the population of Denmark about 2 millions; of the Netherlands a little over 5 millions; and of Sweden a little over 5 millions.

It therefore appears that, leaving out the question of the United States, there are only three European Powers who will be worth considering in the course of the next century, if they increase in the same ratio as in the past, viz., England, Germany, and Russia. France will be deposed from her present position by reason of the fact of her population being stationary, as it is surely obvious that population is the backbone of a civilized nation's power. And, in addition to the three European Powers mentioned, the other great World Power is obviously the United States.

I have not time at present to go into the question of Eastern nations like Japan and China, as it would make this paper too long, though there are some very interesting questions involved, but at present I merely point out the growth of population during the last 100 years, and what seems the inevitable deduction if it continues in the same direction, as everything at present indicates.

The population of England and Wales in 1801 was just under 9 millions, and in 1901 32 millions, the average increase per cent. during each decade for the whole period being 13.85. For the exact figures see Annexure "A." In Scotland the population in 1801 was 1,600,000, and in 1901 just under 4 millions and a half, the average increase per cent. in each decade being 10.79. In Ireland the population in 1821 was 6,800,000, and in 1901 under 4 millions.

In the last 20 years the total emigration from the British Isles has been over 4 millions, but in 53 years 4 millions emigrated from Ireland alone, which accounts for the extraordinary and somewhat sad state of the Irish population, which at the present moment is just about half what it was 60 years ago, when it was at its maximum.

For the purposes of comparison with the foregoing figures, it is interesting to note that the population of the United States in 1800 was 5 millions, and in 1900 75 millions, showing an average percentage increase each decade of 30.70. See Annexure" B." When one attempts to compare the United States with Great Britain and Ireland, one, of course, is at once faced with the difficult questions of immigration and emigration, and it is not within the scope of this paper to discuss these questions at any length. But the United Kingdom has lost population obviously through emigration, and the United States has gained very largely from immigration. Probably the large majority of the 4 millions Irish who have emigrated in the 50 odd years referred to went to the United States, and, indeed, that country has benefited to the following extent during the decades mentioned from immigration, viz. :--

[merged small][merged small][ocr errors][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][ocr errors][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small]

It will therefore at once be seen that the immigration to the United States has been enormous. Another consideration to be borne in mind in regarding its population, as compared with Great Britain's is that from time to time it has by annexation added to its population, as have Russia and Germany, and that, therefore, it is unfair in every way to compare the population as a whole, and were it the object of this paper to compare the growth of population in the United States with England, the Birth and Death Rates would

constitute the only fair basis, but I am merely quoting these figures as matters of interest, and to be borne in mind when I venture on the more important question to us of how the Cape Colony compares with the Australian in respect to population.

Before, however, leaving the matter of Growth of Population in Great Britain and Ireland, the question may arise as to the larger increase in England and Wales, as compared with Scotland proportionately. Looking at the Birth Rate, I find that the Birth Rate of the five largest Scottish towns is 28.2 per cent., as compared to 30.5 per cent. in the five largest English towns. The Death Rate, on the other hand, in the five largest Scottish towns is 18.5 per cent., while in the five largest English towns it is 19.7 per cent. The excess, therefore, in England is 10.8 per cent., and in Scotland 9.7 per cent., an apparently small difference, yet, when the numbers of the respective populations are borne in mind, the annual difference is very material.

Turning to the five principal Irish towns, we find that the Birth Rate is 29.7 per cent., and the Death Rate 20.7 per cent., so that the excess in Ireland of Births over Deaths, taking the five principal towns as a test, is only 9 per cent. per annum.

I have quoted the excess of Births over Deaths of Scotland as 9.7 per cent. in 1904, as revealed by the five principal towns, and of England as 10.8 per cent., yet the actual increase in the whole of England and Wales for the 10 years ending 1901 was 12.17 per cent., and the average for the century 13.85 per cent., so that it is evident that the figures of the five principal towns taken for 1904 do not altogether give an accurate result as applied to the whole country. In Scotland the increase for the 10 years ending 1901 was 11.09 per cent., and the excess in the five towns in 1904 was 9.7 per cent., thus also showing that the increase is really greater than as revealed by the test I have applied. But I am inclined to think that the Scottish figures are also reduced more than the English by emigration, though in 1904 Scotland's excess of Births over Deaths is actually slightly higher than England's. I have been unable to get them separately, as in the works of reference at my command the British Isles and Ireland are kept separately, but not Scotland and England, and it would be interesting to know how much of the difference in increase of population of the two countries is caused by emigration. In Ireland the excess of Births over Deaths per cent. per annum was in 1904, as shown by my figures of the five largest towns, only 9, yet the total is really only 4.84 for the whole country, showing that the population of Ireland is not only suffering from emigration but from other causes as well, of which the principal is the high Death Rate.

In turning to Australia, we find that the population was some 6 thousand in 1801, and, roughly, 5 millions in 1901. The annual increases per cent. are somewhat remarkable for the decades, showing an increase of 11.30 in 1861, and 3.13 in 1901. For actual figures see Annexure "C." This I put down entirely to decrease in immigration, as from 1851-1861 was the period of the gold fever, when

« ПредыдущаяПродолжить »