the emigration to Australia was very large indeed; the population increased in these 10 years from 430,000 to 1,253,000. A great deal has been said of late years of the slow increase of population in Australia, and in more than one quarter it has been stated that the Birth and Death figures were alarming, particularly the Birth figures, which showed that the increase was not as large as it should have been. Where this idea has been got from I find difficulty in understanding, as the following figures will very clearly prove. The Birth Rate in the different Australian Colonies is as follows:: or a total average for the whole of Australasia of 27.91. The figures for England as a whole are 29.15, and for France 22, though Germany shows the high Birth Rate of 35.88. It is difficult to see cause for alarm in the Australasian Birth Rate, though in new colonies the Birth Rate should really be higher than in old countries, because the proportion of very young and very old people is so much less. Turning to the Australasian Death Rates, we find the following figures : or an average for the whole of Australasia of 12.53. exceedingly favourably with This compares and would certainly give the impression that the Australasian Colonies are exceedingly healthy. When one, however, turns to the excess of Births over Deaths in 1904, one finds : : and then turn to Australasian Colonies, and what do we find the excess to be : : or an average for the whole of Australasia of 15.66, considerably better than the very best European country, which is Germany. When we turn to the Cape Colony, we find that the population in 1904 was 2,118,533, and that the growth in the 13 years between census periods, viz., from 1891-1904 was 85.82; an increase to this extent in the 13 years is a very remarkable feature. See Annexure "D." But, in dealing with the Cape Colony figures, it must be remembered that the new element of race is introduced, and therefore all calculations have to be based on the European figures, and quite separately on other races all under one heading, which may be classified as Coloured. I find, in going into the figures, that the Birth Rate in the whole Colony for all races in 1904 was 31.16, and the Death Rate 20.66, showing an excess of 10.50 of Births over Deaths, which compares badly with Australia; but on dissecting these figures and allocating them respectively to the European and the Coloured, the position is considerably altered. I have not been able to get the figures for the whole Colony under such headings, but I have taken the figures applicable to the 34 principal towns as being probably a fair basis, and I find that the average European Birth Rate was 33.61, and the average Coloured Birth Rate 44.86, which clearly proves that the Births in the towns are much higher in proportion than births in the country, as the total of the Rate of the 34 principal towns works out at over 39 per thousand, whereas the actual Birth Rate for the whole Colony was 31.16. On turning to the Death Rates, we find that the average European Death Rate in the 34 principal towns was 14.55, where the Coloured Death Rate was 38.06. Here again we find that the average for all races would be over 26 per thousand, whereas the actual Death Rate for the whole Colony in 1904 was 20.66, thus proving that the Death Rate is also much higher in the towns than in the country. When we turn to the excess, we find that the average per thousand of European Births over Deaths in the 34 towns is 19.06, considerably higher than any other country which has been considered, while the Coloured excess is only 6.8, which is slightly better than Ireland. One cannot too strongly emphasize these figures. It means that every year 19 Europeans remain alive in addition to every thousand European inhabitants, as compared to 6 to every 1000 Coloured, and when we go back to the increase of the population in the whole Colony for the last 13 years, we find that the European population has increased by 51.19 per cent., while the Coloured have only increased 34.63. It will doubtless be contended with truth that a large amount of this is owing to immigration, but, apart altogether from the question of immigration, simply on the excess of Births over Deaths, on the figures of 1904, the Europeans are increasing twice as quickly as the Coloured people. I have made a calculation, based on the growth between 1891 and 1904, as disclosed by the census figures, and calculating the same increase to be maintained, in less than 100 years the European population will equal the Coloured. This is an exceedingly interesting and notable point, and I may at once state that I was very much surprised in the course of my investigations to discover this fact, because one hears so much of the Coloured danger to the Cape Colony and how quickly the natives are increasing, and how they must inevitably swamp us in the end, whereas there is absolutely no ground for alarm of this kind, as I have already shown the Europeans are increasing very much more rapidly than the Coloured people. On turning to the Statistical Register for 1903, if the figures given there are accurate, the result is even more astonishing. I give the figures in Annexure "E," and it will be noticed that the average excess of Births over Deaths for the years 1900, 1901, and 1902 was 5,782 European and 2,250 Coloured, showing that the European races in these 3 years at any rate increased nearly 3 times as fast as the Coloured, simply from the excess of Births, without taking immigration into account at all. These figures are so extraordinary that I hesitate to quote them, and I can only state that my authority is the Statistical Register for 1903. Turning to the question of immigration, I find that in the 5 years ended December 31st, 1903, 75,846 more people arrived by steamer in the Cape Colony than left. How many of these remained in the Cape Colony, and how many went to the Transvaal and the North, it is difficult to say. English figures show that for the same period 151,802 people left Great Britain for South Africa. As pointed out before, the actual increase of Europeans in the 13 years from 18911904 was 192,986, and we also notice that in 1904, which there is no reason to believe was not an average year, the excess of Births over Deaths was 19.06 per cent. in the case of Europeans. Supposing that this excess of Birth Rate of 19.06 had been the annual increase from 1891-1904, it would have brought the European population up to, roughly, 480,000, whereas it was actually 570,000. I am therefore of opinion that I am not over-estimating when I calculate that this Colony benefited by immigration during the 13 years mentioned to the extent of about 90,000, or, roughly, 7,000 per annum. As to whether this will be continued is not a matter within the scope of this paper. I feel, however, compelled to return to the appalling Coloured Death Rate, which has already been referred to. As pointed out, the Coloured Death Rate in the 34 principal towns of the Colony during 1904 was very nearly 3 times the European Death Rate; and were it not for the still higher Birth Rate every year, our Coloured population would be getting less. I was so much struck with this enormous Death Rate that I thought it would be a matter of interest to find out how it worked out in a place like Cape Town, and I find that during 1904, the year we have been basing most calculations on, the European Death Rate was 14.3, and the Coloured Death Rate 36.2, or, roughly, 2 per cent. less than the average for the 34 towns, but for the 4 years ended 30th June, 1905, it was 37.25. This enormous Coloured Death Rate is due largely to the Deaths of children under one year old. I find that in Cape Town the percentage of Deaths of children under one year among Europeans is 22.70 per cent., and of Coloured 39.39 per cent. The general Death Rate for the whole Cape Colony of children under one year old is 34.92 per cent. Ceylon and British Guiana are both supposed to be very bad climates for children, but in British Guiana the Death Rate is 20.58 per cent., and in Ceylon 25.29 per cent., so that the Cape Colony Death Rate of 34.92 per cent. for children under one year old can only be described as appalling. I do not feel called upon to make deductions from the figures I have compiled to any great extent, though I must confess that it is a very interesting subject, but I may be pardoned in again pointing out the main feature that has been forcibly brought home to me in compiling this paper, and that is that owing to the exceedingly high Death Rate among the Coloured people there is no cause for alarm among Europeans as to the Coloured people becoming a danger through their largely increasing numbers. As to the moral right of tacitly permitting a state of affairs where the Death · Rate is utterly unreasonable, that is another matter altogether. |