Beyond Rationality: The Search for Wisdom in a Troubled TimeOxford University Press, 4 янв. 2007 г. - Всего страниц: 368 With Beyond Rationality, Kenneth R. Hammond, one of the most respected and experienced experts in judgment and decision-making, sums up his life's work and persuasively argues that decisions should be based on balance and pragmatism rather than rigid ideologies. Hammond has long focused on the dichotomy between theories of correspondence, whereby arguments correspond with reality, and coherence, whereby arguments strive to be internally consistent. He has persistently proposed a middle approach that draws from both of these modes of thought and so avoids the blunders of either extreme. In this volume, Hammond shows how particular ways of thinking that are common in the political process have led to the mistaken judgments that created our current political crisis. He illustrates this argument by analyzing penetrating case studies emphasizing the political consequences that arise when decision makers consciously or unconsciously ignore their adversaries' particular mode of thought. These analyses range from why Kennedy and Khruschev misunderstood each other to why Colin Powell erred in his judgments over the presence of weapons of mass destruction in Iraq. For anyone concerned about the current state of politics in the U.S. and where it will lead us, Beyond Rationality is required reading. |
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Стр. ix
... Empirical Accuracy the Easy Way 145 Analysis: Seeking Empirical Accuracy the Hard Way 163 Intuition: Seeking Rationality the Easy Way 173 Analysis: Seeking Rationality the Hard Way 185 Robert Rubin: Embedded in an Uncertain World 191 ...
... Empirical Accuracy the Easy Way 145 Analysis: Seeking Empirical Accuracy the Hard Way 163 Intuition: Seeking Rationality the Easy Way 173 Analysis: Seeking Rationality the Hard Way 185 Robert Rubin: Embedded in an Uncertain World 191 ...
Стр. xvi
... empirical fact that is the object of the judgment. (Was the tree actually ten feet tall?) The second is called coherence competence because it evaluates the consistency of the elements of the person's judgment. (Did the person making ...
... empirical fact that is the object of the judgment. (Was the tree actually ten feet tall?) The second is called coherence competence because it evaluates the consistency of the elements of the person's judgment. (Did the person making ...
Стр. xvii
... empirical object or state of affairs judged, especially when the judgment is a prediction of a future event (did the prediction of the weather correspond to the weather that occurred?) The concept of coherence is not a familiar concept ...
... empirical object or state of affairs judged, especially when the judgment is a prediction of a future event (did the prediction of the weather correspond to the weather that occurred?) The concept of coherence is not a familiar concept ...
Стр. xviii
... empirical facts associated with them. That is a common objection to all coherence-based models. But correspondence is the wrong criterion to apply to the justification of a coherence-based conclusion; the authors of the Harvard report ...
... empirical facts associated with them. That is a common objection to all coherence-based models. But correspondence is the wrong criterion to apply to the justification of a coherence-based conclusion; the authors of the Harvard report ...
Стр. xix
... empirically. In short, they tested the correspondence between their ideas and the facts of behavior in experiments. And the results of these experiments have enabled us to learn a great deal.12 It is now apparent that the twenty-first ...
... empirically. In short, they tested the correspondence between their ideas and the facts of behavior in experiments. And the results of these experiments have enabled us to learn a great deal.12 It is now apparent that the twenty-first ...
Содержание
Strategies of Human Judgment | 27 |
Tactics of Human Judgment | 121 |
Themes Guiding Research | 197 |
Looking Backward | 243 |
Notes | 297 |
Bibliography | 319 |
Index | 321 |
Другие издания - Просмотреть все
Beyond Rationality: The Search for Wisdom in a Troubled Time Kenneth R. Hammond Ограниченный просмотр - 2007 |
Beyond Rationality: The Search for Wisdom in a Troubled Time Kenneth R. Hammond Ограниченный просмотр - 2007 |
Beyond Rationality: The Search for Wisdom in a Troubled Time Kenneth R. Hammond Ограниченный просмотр - 2007 |
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al-Qaeda analytical cognition answer Atul Gawande behavior believe bounded rationality Brunswik Cass Sunstein cognitive activity cognitive continuum cognitive processes coherence competence coherence strategy Colin Powell common sense concept correspondence competence correspondence strategy critical Daniel Kahneman demand described ecological economists Egon Brunswik empirical environment example explain fact feedback Gerd Gigerenzer Gigerenzer and Todd Hammond Holmes human judgment Ibid idea important inferences intelligence intentions intuition and analysis Iraq irreducible uncertainty Isaiah Berlin Jared Diamond judg judgment and decision Judgment and Social Justice Kahneman Kennedy Kenneth Khrushchev Lewis’s logic Manhattan Project mathematical ment method military multiple fallible indicators natural Oliver Wendell Holmes one’s organization Oxford University Press person Powell Powell’s preemptive war president problem psychologists question reader reason result Saddam Hussein Scalia Simon Social Policy society Sunstein tactics task terrorist theme theory thought tion wisdom wrong York