Beyond Rationality: The Search for Wisdom in a Troubled TimeOxford University Press, 4 янв. 2007 г. - Всего страниц: 368 With Beyond Rationality, Kenneth R. Hammond, one of the most respected and experienced experts in judgment and decision-making, sums up his life's work and persuasively argues that decisions should be based on balance and pragmatism rather than rigid ideologies. Hammond has long focused on the dichotomy between theories of correspondence, whereby arguments correspond with reality, and coherence, whereby arguments strive to be internally consistent. He has persistently proposed a middle approach that draws from both of these modes of thought and so avoids the blunders of either extreme. In this volume, Hammond shows how particular ways of thinking that are common in the political process have led to the mistaken judgments that created our current political crisis. He illustrates this argument by analyzing penetrating case studies emphasizing the political consequences that arise when decision makers consciously or unconsciously ignore their adversaries' particular mode of thought. These analyses range from why Kennedy and Khruschev misunderstood each other to why Colin Powell erred in his judgments over the presence of weapons of mass destruction in Iraq. For anyone concerned about the current state of politics in the U.S. and where it will lead us, Beyond Rationality is required reading. |
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Стр. 9
... Uncertainty Let me give an example from experience with air travel. Before you board the airplane, you have to stand ... irreducible uncertainty. It is justified, for not only is there a mathematical demonstration of the value of ...
... Uncertainty Let me give an example from experience with air travel. Before you board the airplane, you have to stand ... irreducible uncertainty. It is justified, for not only is there a mathematical demonstration of the value of ...
Стр. 11
... irreducible uncertainty but also a welcoming attitude toward error that is possibly the first of its kind. Indeed, he urges the courage to make errors of judgment that could have hardly been imagined in the early twentieth century. Thus ...
... irreducible uncertainty but also a welcoming attitude toward error that is possibly the first of its kind. Indeed, he urges the courage to make errors of judgment that could have hardly been imagined in the early twentieth century. Thus ...
Стр. 12
... irreducible uncertainty entails not only being rational but also evaluating the consequences of two types of errors in terms of social values in specific circumstances: that makes wisdom rare. So, it is easy to see that if you are a ...
... irreducible uncertainty entails not only being rational but also evaluating the consequences of two types of errors in terms of social values in specific circumstances: that makes wisdom rare. So, it is easy to see that if you are a ...
Стр. 14
... uncertainty. That better way will be found when we give up our myths and develop a greater understanding of the role of human judgment in combating irreducible uncertainty. 2 Combating Uncertainty It has often been pointed out “we 14 ...
... uncertainty. That better way will be found when we give up our myths and develop a greater understanding of the role of human judgment in combating irreducible uncertainty. 2 Combating Uncertainty It has often been pointed out “we 14 ...
Стр. 16
... uncertainty” engulfs those at the highest levels of decision making. In ... irreducible—that can't be reduced or eliminated—tends to create anxiety ... uncertainty that we are prone to accept almost anything that promises certainty ...
... uncertainty” engulfs those at the highest levels of decision making. In ... irreducible—that can't be reduced or eliminated—tends to create anxiety ... uncertainty that we are prone to accept almost anything that promises certainty ...
Содержание
Strategies of Human Judgment | 27 |
Tactics of Human Judgment | 121 |
Themes Guiding Research | 197 |
Looking Backward | 243 |
Notes | 297 |
Bibliography | 319 |
Index | 321 |
Другие издания - Просмотреть все
Beyond Rationality: The Search for Wisdom in a Troubled Time Kenneth R. Hammond Ограниченный просмотр - 2007 |
Beyond Rationality: The Search for Wisdom in a Troubled Time Kenneth R. Hammond Ограниченный просмотр - 2007 |
Beyond Rationality: The Search for Wisdom in a Troubled Time Kenneth R. Hammond Ограниченный просмотр - 2007 |
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