Beyond Rationality: The Search for Wisdom in a Troubled TimeOxford University Press, 4 янв. 2007 г. - Всего страниц: 368 With Beyond Rationality, Kenneth R. Hammond, one of the most respected and experienced experts in judgment and decision-making, sums up his life's work and persuasively argues that decisions should be based on balance and pragmatism rather than rigid ideologies. Hammond has long focused on the dichotomy between theories of correspondence, whereby arguments correspond with reality, and coherence, whereby arguments strive to be internally consistent. He has persistently proposed a middle approach that draws from both of these modes of thought and so avoids the blunders of either extreme. In this volume, Hammond shows how particular ways of thinking that are common in the political process have led to the mistaken judgments that created our current political crisis. He illustrates this argument by analyzing penetrating case studies emphasizing the political consequences that arise when decision makers consciously or unconsciously ignore their adversaries' particular mode of thought. These analyses range from why Kennedy and Khruschev misunderstood each other to why Colin Powell erred in his judgments over the presence of weapons of mass destruction in Iraq. For anyone concerned about the current state of politics in the U.S. and where it will lead us, Beyond Rationality is required reading. |
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Стр. ix
... Tactics of Human Judgment 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 Continua 123 The Cognitive Continuum at the Supreme Court 131 Intuition: Seeking Empirical Accuracy the Easy Way 145 Analysis: Seeking Empirical Accuracy the Hard Way 163 Intuition: Seeking ...
... Tactics of Human Judgment 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 Continua 123 The Cognitive Continuum at the Supreme Court 131 Intuition: Seeking Empirical Accuracy the Easy Way 145 Analysis: Seeking Empirical Accuracy the Hard Way 163 Intuition: Seeking ...
Стр. 9
... tactic of managing uncertainty by maximizing has obviously increased considerably in the Western world since September 11, 2001. The use of a brute force solution is excused because it is the most rational and effective means for coping ...
... tactic of managing uncertainty by maximizing has obviously increased considerably in the Western world since September 11, 2001. The use of a brute force solution is excused because it is the most rational and effective means for coping ...
Стр. 10
... tactics yield are tolerated. Of course, the brute force technique does not guarantee that no false-negative errors will be made; that will also depend on the judgments of the human operatives: they are the backup. For example, despite ...
... tactics yield are tolerated. Of course, the brute force technique does not guarantee that no false-negative errors will be made; that will also depend on the judgments of the human operatives: they are the backup. For example, despite ...
Стр. 12
... tactic that is justified (by its users) by its rationality, for it maximizes accuracy. As a result, maximizing in the face of irreducible uncertainty is widespread. But when circumstances allow us to evaluate the consequences of ...
... tactic that is justified (by its users) by its rationality, for it maximizes accuracy. As a result, maximizing in the face of irreducible uncertainty is widespread. But when circumstances allow us to evaluate the consequences of ...
Стр. 53
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Содержание
Strategies of Human Judgment | 27 |
Tactics of Human Judgment | 121 |
Themes Guiding Research | 197 |
Looking Backward | 243 |
Notes | 297 |
Bibliography | 319 |
Index | 321 |
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Beyond Rationality: The Search for Wisdom in a Troubled Time Kenneth R. Hammond Ограниченный просмотр - 2007 |
Beyond Rationality: The Search for Wisdom in a Troubled Time Kenneth R. Hammond Ограниченный просмотр - 2007 |
Beyond Rationality: The Search for Wisdom in a Troubled Time Kenneth R. Hammond Ограниченный просмотр - 2007 |
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