Beyond Rationality: The Search for Wisdom in a Troubled TimeOxford University Press, 4 янв. 2007 г. - Всего страниц: 368 With Beyond Rationality, Kenneth R. Hammond, one of the most respected and experienced experts in judgment and decision-making, sums up his life's work and persuasively argues that decisions should be based on balance and pragmatism rather than rigid ideologies. Hammond has long focused on the dichotomy between theories of correspondence, whereby arguments correspond with reality, and coherence, whereby arguments strive to be internally consistent. He has persistently proposed a middle approach that draws from both of these modes of thought and so avoids the blunders of either extreme. In this volume, Hammond shows how particular ways of thinking that are common in the political process have led to the mistaken judgments that created our current political crisis. He illustrates this argument by analyzing penetrating case studies emphasizing the political consequences that arise when decision makers consciously or unconsciously ignore their adversaries' particular mode of thought. These analyses range from why Kennedy and Khruschev misunderstood each other to why Colin Powell erred in his judgments over the presence of weapons of mass destruction in Iraq. For anyone concerned about the current state of politics in the U.S. and where it will lead us, Beyond Rationality is required reading. |
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Стр. xi
... task, which strategies work when and why, and what new modes of thought will need to be applied for future progress. By breaking the field down into specific topics and then taking what we have learned regarding them and applying it to ...
... task, which strategies work when and why, and what new modes of thought will need to be applied for future progress. By breaking the field down into specific topics and then taking what we have learned regarding them and applying it to ...
Стр. xxiv
... task for students of judgment and decision making is to discover the relation between the properties of the task and the properties of the cognitive system of the judge. More specifically, we should be able to predict the cognitive ...
... task for students of judgment and decision making is to discover the relation between the properties of the task and the properties of the cognitive system of the judge. More specifically, we should be able to predict the cognitive ...
Стр. 7
... tasks in the environment and a theory of cognitive systems—what I refer to as “ecological psychology.” And psychologists' increasing interest in the ecological approach is now being matched by economists' interest in it; even Nobel ...
... tasks in the environment and a theory of cognitive systems—what I refer to as “ecological psychology.” And psychologists' increasing interest in the ecological approach is now being matched by economists' interest in it; even Nobel ...
Стр. 8
... tasks created by this same species—us. These two worlds largely overlap in terms of the judgment tasks they present ... task offers us. Unless we are trained as statisticians, however, this period doesn't last very long, for the simple ...
... tasks created by this same species—us. These two worlds largely overlap in terms of the judgment tasks they present ... task offers us. Unless we are trained as statisticians, however, this period doesn't last very long, for the simple ...
Стр. 21
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Содержание
Strategies of Human Judgment | 27 |
Tactics of Human Judgment | 121 |
Themes Guiding Research | 197 |
Looking Backward | 243 |
Notes | 297 |
Bibliography | 319 |
Index | 321 |
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Beyond Rationality: The Search for Wisdom in a Troubled Time Kenneth R. Hammond Ограниченный просмотр - 2007 |
Beyond Rationality: The Search for Wisdom in a Troubled Time Kenneth R. Hammond Ограниченный просмотр - 2007 |
Beyond Rationality: The Search for Wisdom in a Troubled Time Kenneth R. Hammond Ограниченный просмотр - 2007 |
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