Beyond Rationality: The Search for Wisdom in a Troubled TimeOxford University Press, 4 янв. 2007 г. - Всего страниц: 368 With Beyond Rationality, Kenneth R. Hammond, one of the most respected and experienced experts in judgment and decision-making, sums up his life's work and persuasively argues that decisions should be based on balance and pragmatism rather than rigid ideologies. Hammond has long focused on the dichotomy between theories of correspondence, whereby arguments correspond with reality, and coherence, whereby arguments strive to be internally consistent. He has persistently proposed a middle approach that draws from both of these modes of thought and so avoids the blunders of either extreme. In this volume, Hammond shows how particular ways of thinking that are common in the political process have led to the mistaken judgments that created our current political crisis. He illustrates this argument by analyzing penetrating case studies emphasizing the political consequences that arise when decision makers consciously or unconsciously ignore their adversaries' particular mode of thought. These analyses range from why Kennedy and Khruschev misunderstood each other to why Colin Powell erred in his judgments over the presence of weapons of mass destruction in Iraq. For anyone concerned about the current state of politics in the U.S. and where it will lead us, Beyond Rationality is required reading. |
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Стр. xi
... a topic that has always been significant in our lives and the lives of our forebears. And now that terrorism is also a significant part of our lives, uncertainty will be prominent (look at any airport!), for xi Introduction.
... a topic that has always been significant in our lives and the lives of our forebears. And now that terrorism is also a significant part of our lives, uncertainty will be prominent (look at any airport!), for xi Introduction.
Стр. xii
... terrorism thrives on it. But if uncertainty evokes and demands yet our judgment, and if judgment is such an integral part of our cognitive activity, surely we have developed ways of coping with it—and indeed we have, when we don't turn ...
... terrorism thrives on it. But if uncertainty evokes and demands yet our judgment, and if judgment is such an integral part of our cognitive activity, surely we have developed ways of coping with it—and indeed we have, when we don't turn ...
Стр. xxii
... terrorists, and came as a surprise to all those who thought the twenty-first century was beyond such reversions. Few expected the CounterEnlightenment exhibited by those terrorists to reappear in such force, and with terrifying ...
... terrorists, and came as a surprise to all those who thought the twenty-first century was beyond such reversions. Few expected the CounterEnlightenment exhibited by those terrorists to reappear in such force, and with terrifying ...
Стр. 9
... terrorists, it must therefore treat everyone as a possible terrorist—that is the “brute force” aspect—even though they know that this tactic will result in numerous false positives. A false positive is a general term for someone ...
... terrorists, it must therefore treat everyone as a possible terrorist—that is the “brute force” aspect—even though they know that this tactic will result in numerous false positives. A false positive is a general term for someone ...
Стр. 10
... terrorism, it plays an equally important role in relation to social policy. In developing environment protection policy, for example, there is considerable uncertainty about the future of any ecology (the species and the environment ...
... terrorism, it plays an equally important role in relation to social policy. In developing environment protection policy, for example, there is considerable uncertainty about the future of any ecology (the species and the environment ...
Содержание
Strategies of Human Judgment | 27 |
Tactics of Human Judgment | 121 |
Themes Guiding Research | 197 |
Looking Backward | 243 |
Notes | 297 |
Bibliography | 319 |
Index | 321 |
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Beyond Rationality: The Search for Wisdom in a Troubled Time Kenneth R. Hammond Ограниченный просмотр - 2007 |
Beyond Rationality: The Search for Wisdom in a Troubled Time Kenneth R. Hammond Ограниченный просмотр - 2007 |
Beyond Rationality: The Search for Wisdom in a Troubled Time Kenneth R. Hammond Ограниченный просмотр - 2007 |
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