CHAPTER XVI

TO BE OR NOT TO BE

HAVING Settled in broad outline what are the natural qualities which it is desirable that human beings should possess, the next question for consideration is as to how the probable merits or demerits of the child of any individual can be prognosticated before its birth in order to decide whether its appearance on earth is to be wished for or not. This prognostication, which is needed in individual cases, if any steps are to be taken in the direction of promoting or discouraging fertility, may be called eugenic prognosis. This is a topic which may be conveniently attacked in the first instance purely theoretically; that is to say without reference to the many practical difficulties certain to be met with.

Let us imagine that the hereditary qualities of all individuals could be measured, that relative weights could be attached to all these qualities, and that by this means all men could be placed in order of merit as viewed from the racial standpoint, thus indicating the probable relative value of the qualities they would transmit to posterity by natural inheritance. Such a parade of any group or nation having been organized, it would be obvious that about half of those present were below the average in racial qualities, and about half above it; and that if any one of those below the average could be prevented from becoming a parent, the appearance of a child probably below the average in racial worth would be thus prevented, with a consequent rise in the average value of the whole group in the next generation. The greater the number of those below the average who were prevented from reproducing their kind, the more rapid would be the resulting racial progress; though if any large proportion of this

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lower half were to be rendered infertile, the inevitable result would be a decrease in the total population. Indeed, if this process were to proceed without limit everywhere, the population of the whole world would steadily decrease until at last one almost perfect pair of human beings would be left alone on earth as the solitary survivors. Seriously, if a population stable in numbers is to remain stable, any decrease in the fertility of the inferior types must be counterbalanced by an increase in the fertility of the superior types. Hence we may conclude that such eugenic reforms as tend to decrease the numbers of the less fit should normally be considered in connexion with methods of increasing the numbers of the more fit. As to these views concerning the benefits to be derived from changes in the relative fertility of the less fit and the more fit, if they were to be applied crudely to the whole world, it would seem that all members of some of the inferior races ought to be rendered entirely infertile, whilst all members of other races should be induced to become more prolific; obviously an impossible programme. In any case, if we are to aim at peaceful progress, it would be best to concentrate our main efforts on the reforms needed in our own countries; and, regarding the matter thus, there are two questions which should first be taken into consideration, namely whether the population is increasing or decreasing too rapidly in numbers, and whether the race is progressing or deteriorating in inborn qualities. In connexion with the first or the population question, it may be as well to revert for a moment to the consideration of certain economic problems connected with it, though they have only an indirect bearing on eugenics.

ECONOMIC CONSIDERATIONS

The capital of a country includes all the buildings therein and all other preparations for the comfort, wellbeing and education of its citizens, as well as for the manufacture and supply of all purchasable articles; and the amount of capital available is, therefore, one of the

factors which regulates the amount of the total supply of goods, using this word in its widest sense. If the population of a country were to increase, whilst the amount of capital remained stationary, the inevitable result would, therefore, be that the share of the total output of goods allotted to each individual would in consequence be reduced on the average. Capital must increase concurrently with any increase in numbers if the standard of living is to be maintained; and as an increase of capital can only be produced by further savings on the part of the people, what we have to consider is whether any reform tending to produce an increase or a decrease in numbers would cause a more or less than proportionate increase or decrease in savings. As to the effects of an increase in the population whilst capital remained stationary, a fall in wages would be the primary consequence of the increase in competition necessarily resulting from such an increase in numbers, this being the way in which the necessary reduction in the share to each individual of the total output of goods would manifest itself; and this fall in real wages would inevitably tend to make saving more difficult. It is, however, the wish to save quite as much as the power to save which must be kept in view; and if this be remembered, it will be seen that, if capital remained stationary, the harmful results in checking savings which would be due to an increase in numbers amongst the ill paid could not be predicted with any certainty in the case of the well paid. An increase in the rate of multiplication might be brought about by earlier marriages, and as a man generally spends more on luxuries during his bachelor days, a larger surplus might thus be made available for useful purposes; and in any case, if there were more children to be provided for, the prudent might be induced in consequence to save more for future contingencies. In this way an increase in the rate of multiplication of all in comfortable circumstances might result in an increase of capital, an increase which, if they alone had to be considered, might be more than sufficient to prevent the increase in their numbers from causing any lowering of their average incomes.

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Moreover, it must be remembered that it is not only inanimate objects, but human beings also, which differ in regard to their capital values; and as the savings of the well-to-do are largely invested in the better education of their children, the result of an increase in their numbers might well be a material increase in the total amount of national savings which would be, as it were, invested in human capital. Thus any reform, in so far as it tended to increase the numbers in the well-paid ranks of society, might produce those beneficial economic effects likely to result from an increase of capital, whilst a fall in average wages, due to a reduction in the average capital per head, would be the certain immediate result of the multiplication of the ill paid. In the last chapter reasons were given for believing that if a nation were paraded eugenically the superior half would be on the whole better paid than the inferior half; and as far as the foregoing economic considerations are concerned, we may therefore now conclude that, if any increase in numbers is to take place, it should be amongst those with higher rather than amongst those with lower incomes. This question of capital may not be one of the very first importance; but here, at all events, we find nothing to run counter to any conclusions which may be arrived at as to the relative advantages from the racial point of view of a population growing at the top and not at the bottom.1

We have also to consider the effects of differences in individual productive power, irrespective of the amount of capital available; and in this connexion we should inquire in what ways the fact, as I believe it to be, that the population of these islands is both too large and deteriorating in quality ought to affect our eugenic policy. At any rate, if a population is too dense, there ought to be no scruples on economic grounds in trying to decrease the rate of multiplication of the lower half of humanity; for the result of such a decrease would be to lessen the strain due to over-population, whilst no counterbalancing disadvantages would arise from a diminution in the number of citizens with exceptional productive 1 Introduction to Economics, Seager, p. 292.

powers.1 Then, as to a possible increase in the rate of multiplication of the upper half, it may be asked whether, in view of the existing density of our population, we should be justified in striving to bring about this result in any part of the community, whatever might be the natural qualities which they would be likely to pass on to posterity. Here, again, an economic point arises; for the upper half of the nation in our parade would certainly be superior to the lower half in their powers of producing goods; and, if any increase in their numbers were to be counterbalanced by a corresponding decrease in the numbers of the less fit, the result would be an increase in production, with a consequent rise in the average standard of living. On the other hand, if no corresponding decrease took place amongst the less fit, the financial pressure on them might be increased by any such increase in the total population; but, if so, this pressure would tend to decrease their fertility, and thus to improve the racial qualities of the nation in the future. In other words, any increase in numbers would tend to increase the efficacy of natural selection; and though the additional suffering thus caused would be deplorable, yet it must be remembered that this suffering could be at any time obviated by a sufficient decrease in the fertility of the inferior types. Here we are, however, only considering the question from the economic point of view; and all that can be said is that it seems probable that the economic benefits derivable from an increase in the numbers of the hereditarily superior types would outweigh all economic disadvantages.

Reverting to purely eugenic considerations, it is, therefore, obvious that on all grounds any increase in the fertility of the lower half of our eugenic parade or any decrease in that of the upper half would be injurious.

1 Certain statistical inquiries have recently been made which indicate that the population of this country is likely to begin to decrease before long; and if this forecast should prove to be true, our existing overpopulation might in time thus be made to cease to exist. With a decreasing population the need for urging a decrease in the birth-rate of the less fit might, however, really become more urgent; for in such circumstances measures calculated to increase the birth-rate might be strenuously advocated, as in France, without any thought being given to their effect on the quality of the people in future generations.