SUMMARY

327 social scale. There is also reason to believe that this differential birth-rate was at all events far less marked a century ago; and, if this be so, its effects may well not yet have manifested themselves to any great extent. Reforms in the census returns and methods of registration would greatly facilitate these inquiries, which together with systematic measurements of the people would in time set all doubts at rest; but nothing now is being done in these directions. Such facts as are at our disposal, however, clearly indicate that the worse the remuneration of any class, the more it will as a rule add to the numbers of the coming generations; and as the scale of remuneration is in some measure an indication of innate wage-earning capacity, we thus see that the nation must be losing ground in regard to all the valuable qualities which may be included in this category. Almost every class must on balance be receiving additions from below, and must in consequence be suffering from the inferior quality of its recruits. In short, as far as we can judge from the facts at our disposal, the nation as a whole is slowly and steadily deteriorating as regards its average inborn qualities.

CHAPTER XIX

FACTORS AFFECTING THE BIRTH-RATE

THE DECLINE IN THE BIRTH-RATE

IN the last chapter the differences between the rates of multiplication of the different social strata were shown to be a probable cause of the decay of civilizations in the past and in the future; and the conclusion there reached is strengthened by the fact that rational explanations can, as we shall see, be given for these social differences. The study of the causes of social differentiation is, moreover, very important as pointing to possible remedies for the resulting evils; but, before considering these questions in detail, it may be as well to deal briefly with a few underlying facts and principles.

The birth-rate depends on the following four factors: (1) The marriage-rate; or, more correctly, the proportion of the population who contract some kind of alliance, legitimate or illegitimate. (2) The age at marriage, age not only having a very marked influence on fertility in women, but also affecting the rate at which the generations succeed each other. (3) The intentional limitation in the size of families. And (4) innate or physiological fecundity. Now with the exception of fecundity, all these other factors affecting the birth-rate are themselves determined as the result of a balance being struck between opposing desires and ideals. The stronger in any group is the love between the sexes, or mere sexual desire, the higher will tend to be the marriage-rate and the lower the average age at marriage; and on account of both of these consequences, the higher will tend to be the birth-rate. Then as to the intentional limitation of the size of the families, there are other mental attributes which tend to raise the birth-rate;

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such as, amongst bad qualities, recklessness, a selfish disregard for the prospects of the children yet to be born, incapacity to take thought as to the future, and a tendency to drunkenness ; and, amongst good qualities, freedom from undue personal and social ambition, the desire for parenthood, and the love of children. We thus see that in so far as the desire for parenthood is due to the love of children, this is a factor which is kept in check by those fears and hopes which make a small family seem to be more desirable than a big one. All these diverse qualities, mental and bodily, which tend to keep the birth-rate low will, in so far as they are innate, here be described as 'natural infertility,' the word 'sterility' being only used in connexion with those causes which affect fecundity, or which, in other words, make parenthood impossible or improbable whatever might be the desires of the parents. And here it is important to note that, putting sterility aside, it is only by acting on or through these mental attributes that the birth-rate can be affected in such a way as, without compulsion, to produce a change in the rate of multiplication of any section of the community.

Let us first, without any reference to social differences, consider what have been the ultimate causes of the fall in the birth-rate in recent years, this being a matter which has attracted so much attention. In the first place, if year after year more persons are living on into old age whilst the number of children produced annually remains constant, the proportion that the numbers born bear to the total population must show a decline; or, to put the matter more generally, the birth-rate varies with the age distribution of the population. This is an important statistical point, which accounts for some of the fall in the crude birth-rate in recent years; a point which, however, I must leave statisticians to deal with. My object here is to discover those causes of the change in the birth-rate which, whether important or unimportant, point to possible eugenic safeguards; and these statistical changes throw no direct light on this question. The other main causes of the fall in the birth-rate will now be considered one by one.

The improvements which have been made in recent years in medical science, hygiene, sanitation and health conditions generally have caused a continuous fall in the death-rate, especially amongst children. As already mentioned in Chapter XII, this fall in the death-rate has reacted directly on the birth-rate in the following ways. In families not wholly destitute of prudential considerations, the removal of a child by death tends to lessen the prevention of further procreation, whether by continence, birth control or abortion. Even in the most reckless homes the death of an infant may bring the period of lactation to a close, and thus render impregnation more probable. The physical strain on the mother is lessened in many cases by the death of a child; and ill-health from overstrain certainly makes miscarriages more probable, whilst it may sometimes make impregnation more improbable, though, unfortunately, this does not seem to be the normal result. Thus the recent fall in the birthrate can be partly explained by causes which have affected the death-rate; and this part of the fall in the birth-rate may be called a fall from secondary causes.

Another cause of the decline in the birth-rate has been the various factors which have tended to remove the barriers between classes, including the spread of education of all kinds and the wider social intercourse due to greater facilities for locomotion. The result of these changes in our social conditions has been to increase enormously the number of persons who are influenced by personal ambition, or who hope to see their children make a rise in the world; and it is ambition which has been the most potent influence in causing the unmarried to postpone the date of their marriage and the married to limit the size of their families.

A third cause of the decline in the birth-rate has been the increasing technicality of the means of earning a living, as the result of the progress of knowledge of all kinds. This has led to a longer time than formerly being taken on the average in training or in acquiring the necessary skill, whether before or after beginning to earn an income; and as all men like to set up their homes in somewhat the same style as that which they believe will

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eventually be possible, lengthier training has led to later marriages and diminished fertility.

A fourth reason for the fall in the birth-rate has been the legislation which made the employment of children either impossible or only possible at a later age. In trades where many children were employed, such as the textile trades, parents began to limit the size of their families to a greater extent when this source of family income vanished; whilst amongst miners, where children were much less frequently employed, the fall in the birthrate was less marked. Child labour now being prohibited, we here, however, get no explanation of the fact that the birth-rate is now higher amongst miners than in the textile trades.1

Lastly, the fall of the birth-rate has been greatly accelerated during recent years by the knowledge of the methods of birth limitation becoming more widely known. This is a subject to which it will be necessary to return; and all that need here be said is that it is the ultimate causes which lead to a greater or less use of contraceptive methods which are of most importance in regard to eugenic reform.

The diminution in the size of families which has been produced by all these causes acting together has certainly tended to improve the health of the children by allowing more care to be given to each one separately; and a fall in the death-rate, which may be described as a fall from secondary causes, has thus been produced. Thus we see that the birth-rate and death-rate act and react on each other in such a manner as to create a close correlation between them.

DIFFERENCES IN THE BIRTH-RATE

If we pass on to consider the more important racial questions, namely those concerning the differences in the

1 In connexion with child labour and fertility, see The Problem of Practical Eugenics, by Prof. Karl Pearson, and Report on the English Birth-Rate, Pt. I, Miss Elderton. It has been suggested that high fertility may be accounted for by the excess of females; see Economic Journal, March 1925, C. T. Bruner.