in the future, on the whole facilitate both the production of goods from raw material and their distribution amongst the people to such an extent as to more than counterbalance any simultaneous increase in the difficulty of obtaining the necessary raw materials; whilst increased means of transport may for some time continue to facilitate the supply of food and goods from distant localities. But is not any addition to the supply of raw material required in consequence of an increase in the population likely to be obtained at a cost above the existing average? The result must depend on a balancing of many complex opposing forces which will be in operation in an unknown future; and I can do no more than record it as my not too confident opinion that numbers will continue to increase in the future, and that even if, as is probable, average incomes as measured in goods do also continue to rise for some time to come, yet they will rise less than they would have risen if the population had remained stationary. At all events an increase in the population of neither this country nor any other can go on for ever, for the world is now rapidly filling up; and some increase in the checks on fertility would, therefore, sooner or later have beneficial effects on all countries where otherwise an increase in numbers would continue to take place.

SUMMARY

Up till now the only aim of reformers has been almost without exception to produce immediate improvements in the surroundings of the people; but these environmental reforms only come within the scope of eugenics in so far as they indirectly affect the inborn qualities of the race. During the last hundred years mechanical and other inventions have greatly facilitated the production of goods, with the result that the condition of the poorer classes has been greatly improved. The population increased greatly at the same time, this being the result of the concurrent lessening of certain checks on fertility; these including abortion, celibacy, conception control, death and disease. The density of a population is determined by a balance being struck between opposing forces; the

sexual and parental instincts always acting in opposition to the fear of the trouble of rearing a large family together with other prudential considerations; with the result that the reckless always tend to multiply quickly, whilst the prudent may even decrease in numbers. As regards the past, we may be certain that had no checks on fertility remained in operation the increase in numbers would have been far greater than it actually was, and that the misery due to over-population would have been intense; whilst, as to the future, some method of limiting fertility is essential for human welfare. Natural fecundity has also to be considered, this being a factor which affects the density of the population in such a way that the tendency to overpopulation would be slowly increased generation after generation if parents were to be relieved of all family cares. At the present time the desire to live up to a certain standard of civilization is the main check in this country on the tendency for numbers to increase, the actual food supply being a factor of less immediate importance. In different circumstances an increase in the population may cause either a rise or a fall in incomes. Even if wages continue to rise in this country, it is probable that any further increase in numbers in the future would keep average incomes below the level at which they would have stood if the population had either remained stationary or decreased somewhat; and, if this be so, there should be no hesitation as regards material results in applying further checks on the multiplication of the inferior strains of the nation. If our population begins to decrease somewhat in the near future, this should be matter for rejoicing rather than for sorrow, at all events as far as the welfare of these islands is concerned. As to any demand which may be made for an increase in the fertility of the superior strains, this seems at first sight to be a more questionable proposition from the purely economic point of view; but since the prudent and capable make the best producers of goods the fear of any immediate material damage consequent on their too rapid multiplication may be entirely put on one side.

CHAPTER V

ENVIRONMENTAL REFORM

We have seen that inventions and new methods of producing goods of all kinds have resulted in a continued improvement in human surroundings in some respects, with a certain corresponding increase in comfort. Mechanical contrivances have also greatly facilitated the transfer of knowledge or the flow of tradition from age to age; tradition' here being held to include all that mental stimulus and all that information which human beings receive from their predecessors by word of mouth, by books, or through the changes previously made in their surroundings, changes which often in effect embody thought. And physical improvements and beneficial traditions make up all that is good in our environmental inheritance. In the past, no doubt, one race has often prevailed over another because its environmental inheritance was more 'fit' or more suited to the conditions of the times; and in this way there has been a certain survival of the fittest physical conditions and the fittest traditions. Civilization has in fact advanced by a complex system of growth and selection. An improvement in civilization shows itself in an improvement in what is passed on by environmental inheritance; that is by an increase in the value of those physical objects or material benefits with which one generation is endowed by preceding generations, and by an increase in the worth of the moral and intellectual traditions passed on at the same time. And if we compare the two elements which together constitute environmental inheritance we shall see that good traditions are of far more importance than good physical surroundings; that is if the importance of an agent is estimated by the pos

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sibility of utilizing it in order to increase the welfare of mankind in the future.

Here to insist on the value of tradition can only be excused on the ground that its importance has as a fact at times not been fully recognized. Let us in imagination consider what would happen if an English baby named Orson had been brought up amongst bears, whilst his brother Valentine had remained with his family. When Orson was first brought back to his ancestral home, the differences in many respects between him and his brother Valentine would have been most conspicuous, and, putting aside the ways in which two brothers are ordinarily distinguished, these differences would have been entirely due to the effects of what is here described as tradition. Now let us go one stage further in imagination, and let us assume that the whole civilized world might suddenly find itself in the condition of Orson when living amongst the bears; or, in other words, that mankind might lose at one stroke every element of its environmental inheritance. We have seen how vast under existing conditions has been the task imposed on France of restoring the devastated regions; but if our imaginary catastrophe were to overtake the whole world, that is if all records were to be lost and all knowledge of how to rebuild previously existing works were to vanish, in these circumstances such a task would be so great that the period which a country would require in order to recover after having been thus entirely devastated would have to be measured in thousands of years. It is possible in this way to realize in a measure what· the loss of all our traditions would mean, and to deny the immense importance of tradition is only possible if some other meaning be given to that word.

We may go even one stage further in imagination and assume that Orson and all his contemporaries had not only lost all their human traditions, but that they had also acquired the inborn qualities of the bears by whom they had been brought up. If this magic event were now to occur, the period of recovery of the world from such a metamorphosis would have to be measured in millions rather than in thousands of years; for, if the evolution

of man had again to be repeated, there is no reason to suppose that the process would be more quickly accomplished in the future than in the past. No advance in civilization was made as long as our ancestors inherited a brain no better equipped than that of an ape; but, with each evolutionary advance in brain power, a further advance in civilization became at all events a possibility. To this extent civilization is unquestionably dependent on inherited mental capacity.

If inherited brain power sets a limit beyond which civilization cannot possibly advance, should we not therefore concentrate our attention on the development of natural capacity? Here we must remind ourselves that natural capacity or germinal constitution is an unalterable factor in the living; and that to advocate such a policy would be a counsel of despair as far as this generation is concerned. And we should not forget that if we compare the intellect of the ancient Greeks with that of our own contemporaries, there is, to say the least, no sign of any progress in natural capacity having taken place since those days, and yet civilization has advanced in certain directions to a great extent in recent years. The explanation is to be found in the fact that tradition advances by a kind of momentum; for all new discoveries are built up on old discoveries and all take time to develop. When we say that man is the product of his age, we mean that no one can break away from the traditions of his contemporaries to more than a very limited extent. Traditions improve or advance by a kind of slow growth, and it would always be an exceedingly long time before civilization could grow up to the limit set to its advance by man's naturally inherited capacities. Civilization might even for a time be moving forwards when the inborn qualities of man were continuously moving backwards. Civilization may advance in waves, and human nature may advance in waves; and this may go on even if the crests of the two sets of waves do not coincide in time. The improvement of traditions depends largely on the conditions obtaining in the most advanced countries in existence in the world at the time being, and the improvement in these countries