And the belief that safety can best be attained in this manner is so ingrained in our minds that we are likely to be led by it to be unduly cautious in regard to social reforms, although in truth little reliance can be placed on any analogy between physical and social dangers. Such an analogy is faulty because in many social matters we can never stand still; and to attempt to do so may be to allow ourselves to be drifted by an unperceived current either up stream or down stream at the mercy of blind fate.

It will doubtless be said in reply by certain optimistic critics that evolution has always been a progressive process, and that to let things alone as far as possible would in truth result in our always slowly drifting forward with the stream. Evolution teaches us that we are under the dominion of certain general and changeless laws; and when this conception of the universe was first generally adopted, it no doubt seemed as if man had nothing to do but to look on whilst Nature herself worked ceaselessly to ensure this continued upward movement on the path of progress. It seemed, in fact, indisputable that these general laws, on which our progress in the past has depended, might be relied on to continue in all circumstances to shed their beneficent influence upon us. Unfortunately our former happy and optimistic frame of mind has been subject to certain rude shocks in recent years, making us look forward with far less confidence to the future. In the first place, it is now generally recognized that, in the course of the long evolutionary process, some species have altogether died out, leaving no descendants behind them, whilst other types have not only multiplied greatly in numbers, but have also slowly given rise to several new forms of life. The horse and the ass are probably descended from some common ancestral species, a species which flourished at the same time as some of those extinct gigantic mammalia whose blood apparently no longer flows in the veins of any living creature. And not only does it appear that some species are destined to die out and leave no progeny on earth, but also that the number of these condemned

EVOLUTION MAY BE RETROGRADE

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species, if they may be so described, existing on earth at any one time is probably greater than the number of the species destined to bifurcate in their forward advance and thus people the earth with new and varied forms of life. In fact nature seems to have been making innumerable experiments in the past, most of which have proved to be failures; and from this we may conclude that the odds as regards any particular species are normally in favour of its total extinction, a conclusion likely to make us somewhat less optimistic as regards the future of mankind. It is true that the immense relative superiority in certain respects of man over other animals may justify us in dismissing from our minds the possibility of the disappearance of our species. But even more disconcerting than the facts concerning the extinction of species are those which clearly indicate that many existing animals have been evolved from other extinct animals which appear to us to have been of a more advanced type; or, in other words, that the march of evolution has not infrequently been backwards and not forwards. Judging by this analogy there would be nothing surprising in the human race, whilst possibly becoming far more numerous, at the same time becoming more ape-like. If we take a wide enough field of view, it does, however, appear that the world has always been slowly advancing towards a better state of things, and the teachings of science need not shake the faith that some of us hold that this advance is destined to be continued on a broad front in the future. But if we confine our view within a narrower horizon, and if we look only at our own form of civilization, the history of the past affords us no right whatever to prophesy its continued advance-no, not even to deny the possibility or even the probability of a slow and steady deterioration in our national well-being. Pride in our past achievements must on no account make us turn a deaf ear to the warnings derived from a study of the laws of nature; for it will be seen that such a study makes it certain that to be careless about the future may be to condemn our own nation to disaster.

For a long time it will be impossible to remove all doubts

concerning the workings of the laws of nature, especially as to the way in which living things have been slowly modified in the process of time; and we can indeed hardly even imagine a time when a theory of evolution will be so firmly established as to defy all criticism. We cannot wait till all doubts are removed, because that would probably mean postponing all eugenic reform for ever. The reformer, whatever be his objects, must own to some doubts and accept some risks. But how is he to know when his doubts are of sufficient gravity to make it wise for him to pause in his advance? This question does not admit of any concise or simple answer, and all that can now be done is to suggest certain wide generalizations which should be held in view when each case comes up for consideration.

The main point to be remembered is that already suggested, which need not, therefore, be again emphasized; namely that the study of evolution teaches us that the universe is normally not stable but in a state of flux. Here the point which I wish to make is, however, that every reformer is justified in placing some reliance on the estimates he makes of the probable effects of his proposals; for anyone who holds that what he believes to be right and true is in reality as likely as not to be wrong and false has no logical ground on which he can advance in any direction whatever. We are certainly justified in persuading others to pursue voluntarily the course of action which we think on the whole to be right, provided that we do not hide our doubts or conceal the reasons which have led us to our conclusions. Those whose only object in social matters is to apply a brake to the wheels of progress may at times play a useful part; but if this is all they strive to do they must leave it to others to attempt to make any headway against the ever-present but often unseen currents of life. If the flood is very wide, those in midstream have no banks in sight by which to judge which way they are drifting; and when social causes are sufficiently widespread and not too overpowering, it is, in like manner, often almost impossible by direct inspection at the time to ascertain

DANGERS OF INACTION

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whether the drift of things is progressive or retrograde. The existence of unperceived currents of life in social affairs may, in fact, turn conservatism from wisdom into folly. Moreover, it is important to note that if the wisest among our citizens should let their assumed ignorance always bar their road, the harmful consequences will not be confined to the loss of the beneficial influence in guiding eugenic reform which they might exert; that is the loss of the benefits due to the fact that it is the wise who, seeing all round the subject, often perceive rocks ahead which could be avoided by steering a wise course, rocks unseen by the less wise. If the more capable hold back because of their wider vision, the sailing of the ship may pass into the hands of the less capable, who may be uninfluenced by many fears which ought not to be neglected. What appears to the casual onlooker merely to be wise inaction may be a policy which is turning an advance into a retreat; and, when this is possible, a bold forward movement is often to be recommended.

One other broad principle should be held in view when considering what amount of risk may be justifiably incurred, and that is that the greater the benefits hoped to be obtained the greater may be the dangers legitimately faced. On this same principle, every business man instinctively weighs possible profits as against possible losses. Assuming that man has been developed by a slow evolutionary process from some lower type of animal, the Eugenist aims at utilizing at all events some of the forces which have been effective in the past in producing this result so as in the future to make man a nobler being. Eugenic reform, if successful, will confer untold benefits on the millions on millions who will compose the generations of the future, and the hope of obtaining this result fully justifies a bold policy. Stagnation is to be feared as well as error, and we must beware of allowing our fears to stand too much in the way of our actions.

SUMMARY

By observing the sequence of events, science aids us in foretelling the future and in deciphering the past. To

believe in evolution implies a belief that the world has been and will be evolved in accordance with fixed natural laws, that is to say, with past relevant experiences. The idea of evolution as applied to inanimate objects was well known in ancient times, whilst the belief in organic evolution, though now firmly established, is a recent innovation, and is not to be condemned as materialistic. Eugenics consists in the utilization of knowledge acquired in the study of the evolution of living things in order to promote the progress of our race. The acceptance of organic evolution has been a revolution in thought, which will necessarily result in changes in social customs. Our admitted ignorance concerning the ways of nature affords no excuse for altogether neglecting to promote eugenic reform, because inaction may leave us at the mercy of unperceived retrograde tendencies, and because evolution is not always progressive. Risks must be run; for to wait for perfect knowledge would be to wait for ever. A purely conservative policy on the part of the wise may place the steering of the ship in the hands of the foolish. The benefits derivable from eugenic reform being enormous, the fact that dangers will be involved in striving to promote racial progress gives no excuse for complete inaction. //